Cost-effectiveness of comparative survey designs for helminth control programs: Post-hoc cost analysis and modelling of the Kenyan national school-based deworming program.

Background: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosomiasis comprise the most wide-spread NTDs globally. Preventative chemotherapy is a cost-effective approach to controlling morbidity of both diseases, but relies on large scale surveys to determine and revise treatment frequency. Availability of detailed information on survey costs is limited despite recent methodological surveying innovations.

A geospatial analysis of local intermediate snail host distributions provides insight into schistosomiasis risk within under-sampled areas of southern Lake Malawi.

Background: Along the southern shoreline of Lake Malawi, the incidence of schistosomiasis is increasing with snails of the genera Bulinus and Biomphalaria transmitting urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively. Since the underlying distribution of snails is partially known, often being focal, developing pragmatic spatial models that interpolate snail information across under-sampled regions is required to understand and assess current and future risk of schistosomiasis.

Methods: A secondary geospatial analysis of recently collected malacological and environmental survey data was undertaken.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

A Comparison of Markov and Mechanistic Models for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Prevalence Projections in the Context of Survey Design.

Globally, there are over 1 billion people infected with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), mostly living in marginalized settings with inadequate sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization recommends an integrated approach to STH morbidity control through improved access to sanitation and hygiene education and the delivery of preventive chemotherapy (PC) to school-age children delivered through schools. Progress of STH control programs is currently estimated using a baseline (pre-PC) school-based prevalence survey and then monitored using periodical school-based prevalence surveys, known as Impact Assessment Surveys (IAS).

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs.

Model-based geostatistical design and analysis of prevalence for soil-transmitted helminths in Kenya: Results from ten-years of the Kenya national school-based deworming programme.

Background: Kenya is endemic for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) with over 6 million children in 27 counties currently at-risk. A national school-based deworming programme (NSBDP) was launched in 2012 with a goal to eliminate parasitic worms as a public health problem. This study used model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to design and analyse the impact of the NSBDP and inform treatment strategy changes.

Modernizing the design and analysis of prevalence surveys for neglected tropical diseases.

Current WHO guidelines set prevalence thresholds below which a neglected tropical disease can be considered to have been eliminated as a public health problem, and specify how surveys to assess whether elimination has been achieved should be designed and analysed, based on classical survey sampling methods. In this paper, we describe an alternative approach based on geospatial statistical modelling. We first show the gains in efficiency that can be obtained by exploiting any spatial correlation in the underlying prevalence.

Paenibacillus spp infection among infants with postinfectious hydrocephalus in Uganda: an observational case-control study.

Background: Paenibacillus thiaminolyticus is a cause of postinfectious hydrocephalus among Ugandan infants. To determine whether Paenibacillus spp is a pathogen in neonatal sepsis, meningitis, and postinfectious hydrocephalus, we aimed to complete three separate studies of Ugandan infants. The first study was on peripartum prevalence of Paenibacillus in mother-newborn pairs.

Neonatal Paenibacilliosis: Paenibacillus Infection as a Novel Cause of Sepsis in Term Neonates With High Risk of Sequelae in Uganda.

Background: Paenibacillus thiaminolyticus may be an underdiagnosed cause of neonatal sepsis.

Methods: We prospectively enrolled a cohort of 800 full-term neonates presenting with a clinical diagnosis of sepsis at 2 Ugandan hospitals. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction specific to P.

Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991-2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach.

Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services.

Mapping Cancer in Africa: A Comprehensive and Comparable Characterization of 34 Cancer Types Using Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2020.

Objective: Cancer incidence and mortality rates in Africa are increasing, yet their geographic distribution and determinants are incompletely characterized. The present study aims to establish the spatial epidemiology of cancer burden in Africa and delineate the association between cancer burden and the country-level socioeconomic status. The study also examines the forecasts of the cancer burden for 2040 and evaluates infrastructure availability across all African countries.

Cytomegalovirus infections in infants in Uganda: Newborn-mother pairs, neonates with sepsis, and infants with hydrocephalus.

Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections among newborn-mother pairs, neonates with sepsis, and infants with hydrocephalus in Uganda.

Design And Methods: Three populations-newborn-mother pairs, neonates with sepsis, and infants (≤3 months) with nonpostinfectious (NPIH) or postinfectious (PIH) hydrocephalus-were evaluated for CMV infection at 3 medical centers in Uganda. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to characterize the prevalence of CMV.

Geostatistical modelling enables efficient safety assessment for mass drug administration with ivermectin in Loa loa endemic areas through a combined antibody and LoaScope testing strategy for elimination of onchocerciasis.

The elimination of onchocerciasis through community-based Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of ivermectin (Mectizan) is hampered by co-endemicity of Loa loa, as individuals who are highly co-infected with Loa loa parasites can suffer serious and occasionally fatal neurological reactions from the drug. The test-and-not-treat strategy of testing all individuals participating in MDA has some operational constraints including the cost and limited availability of LoaScope diagnostic tools. As a result, a Loa loa Antibody (Ab) Rapid Test was developed to offer a complementary way of determining the prevalence of loiasis.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccine effectiveness in England (REACT-1): a series of cross-sectional random community surveys.

Background: England has experienced a third wave of the COVID-19 epidemic since the end of May, 2021, coinciding with the rapid spread of the delta (B.1.617.

MBGapp: A Shiny application for teaching model-based geostatistics to population health scientists.

User-friendly interfaces have been increasingly used to facilitate the learning of advanced statistical methodology, especially for students with only minimal statistical training. In this paper, we illustrate the use of MBGapp for teaching geostatistical analysis to population health scientists. Using a case-study on Loa loa infections, we show how MBGapp can be used to teach the different stages of a geostatistical analysis in a more interactive fashion.

Spatial distribution and risk factors for human cysticercosis in Colombia.

Background: Cysticercosis is a zoonotic neglected tropical disease (NTD) that affects humans and pigs following the ingestion of Taenia solium eggs. Human cysticercosis poses a substantial public health burden in endemic countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to target high-endemicity settings with enhanced interventions in 17 countries by 2030.

Model-based geostatistics enables more precise estimates of neglected tropical-disease prevalence in elimination settings: mapping trachoma prevalence in Ethiopia.

Background: As the prevalences of neglected tropical diseases reduce to low levels in some countries, policymakers require precise disease estimates to decide whether the set public health targets have been met. At low prevalence levels, traditional statistical methods produce imprecise estimates. More modern geospatial statistical methods can deliver the required level of precision for accurate decision-making.

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries as a result of the Delta variant. We assessed reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction swab positivity in the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission–1 (REACT-1) study in England. During June and July 2021, we observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time of 25 days, driven by complete replacement of the Alpha variant by Delta and by high prevalence at younger, less-vaccinated ages.

Gun violence incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic is higher than before the pandemic in the United States.

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, gun violence (GV) in the United States (U.S.) was postulated to increase strain on already taxed healthcare resources, such as blood products, intensive care beds, personal protective equipment, and even hospital staff.

Congenital Cytomegalovirus Infection Burden and Epidemiologic Risk Factors in Countries With Universal Screening: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) infection is the most common congenital infection and the leading acquired cause of developmental disabilities and sensorineural deafness, yet a reliable assessment of the infection burden is lacking.

Objectives: To estimate the birth prevalence of cCMV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs), characterize the rate by screening methods, and delineate associated risk factors of the infection.

Data Sources: MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews databases were searched from January 1, 1960, to March 1, 2021, and a total of 1322 studies were identified.

Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-level case occurrences based on cases within or external to a country throughout the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history.

Model building and assessment of the impact of covariates for disease prevalence mapping in low-resource settings: to explain and to predict.

This paper provides statistical guidance on the development and application of model-based geostatistical methods for disease prevalence mapping. We illustrate the different stages of the analysis, from exploratory analysis to spatial prediction of prevalence, through a case study on malaria mapping in Tanzania. Throughout the paper, we distinguish between predictive modelling, whose main focus is on maximizing the predictive accuracy of the model, and explanatory modelling, where greater emphasis is placed on understanding the relationships between the health outcome and risk factors.

Strengthening data collection for neglected tropical diseases: What data are needed for models to better inform tailored intervention programmes?

Locally tailored interventions for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are becoming increasingly important for ensuring that the World Health Organization (WHO) goals for control and elimination are reached. Mathematical models, such as those developed by the NTD Modelling Consortium, are able to offer recommendations on interventions but remain constrained by the data currently available. Data collection for NTDs needs to be strengthened as better data are required to indirectly inform transmission in an area.