Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming.

Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory.

Low connectivity compromises the conservation of reef fishes by marine protected areas in the tropical South Atlantic.

The total spatial coverage of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) within the Brazilian Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) has recently achieved the quantitative requirement of the Aichii Biodiversity Target 11. However, the distribution of MPAs in the Brazilian EEZ is still unbalanced regarding the proportion of protected ecosystems, protection goals and management types. Moreover, the demographic connectivity between these MPAs and their effectiveness regarding the maintenance of biodiversity are still not comprehensively understood.