Burden of disease attributable to unsafe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene in domestic settings: a global analysis for selected adverse health outcomes.

Background: Assessments of disease burden are important to inform national, regional, and global strategies and to guide investment. We aimed to estimate the drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH)-attributable burden of disease for diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections, undernutrition, and soil-transmitted helminthiasis, using the WASH service levels used to monitor the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as counterfactual minimum risk-exposure levels.

Methods: We assessed the WASH-attributable disease burden of the four health outcomes overall and disaggregated by region, age, and sex for the year 2019.

Drivers of Decline in Diarrhea Mortality Between GEMS and VIDA Studies.

Background: Statistical modeling suggests that decreasing diarrhea-associated mortality rates in recent decades are largely attributed to improved case management, rotavirus vaccine, and economic development.

Methods: We examined data collected in 2 multisite population-based diarrhea case-control studies, both conducted in The Gambia, Kenya, and Mali: the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS; 2008-2011) and Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA; 2015-2018). Population-level diarrhea mortality and risk factor prevalence, estimated using these study data, were used to calculate the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhea mortality using a counterfactual framework.

Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

Background: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes.

Interventions for Maintenance of Essential Health Service Delivery during the COVID-19 Response in Uganda, between March 2020 and April 2021.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed health systems globally and affected the delivery of health services. We conducted a study in Uganda to describe the interventions adopted to maintain the delivery of other health services.

Methods: We reviewed documents and interviewed 21 key informants.

Cost-effectiveness of antenatal multiple micronutrients and balanced energy protein supplementation compared to iron and folic acid supplementation in India, Pakistan, Mali, and Tanzania: A dynamic microsimulation study.

Background: Malnutrition among women of childbearing age is especially prevalent in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and can be harmful to the fetus during pregnancy. In the most recently available Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), approximately 10% to 20% of pregnant women in India, Pakistan, Mali, and Tanzania were undernourished (body mass index [BMI] <18.5 kg/m2), and according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, approximately 20% of babies were born with low birth weight (LBW; <2,500 g) in India, Pakistan, and Mali and 8% in Tanzania.

Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models.

Forecasts and alternative scenarios of COVID-19 mortality have been critical inputs for pandemic response efforts, and decision-makers need information about predictive performance. We screen n = 386 public COVID-19 forecasting models, identifying n = 7 that are global in scope and provide public, date-versioned forecasts. We examine their predictive performance for mortality by weeks of extrapolation, world region, and estimation month.

Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models.

Forecasts and alternative scenarios of COVID-19 mortality have been critical inputs into a range of policies and decision-makers need information about predictive performance. We identified n=386 public COVID-19 forecasting models and included n=8 that were global in scope and provided public, date-versioned forecasts. For each, we examined the median absolute percent error (MAPE) compared to subsequently observed mortality trends, stratified by weeks of extrapolation, world region, and month of model estimation.

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.

Background: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk.

Methods: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as "at increased risk of severe COVID-19" in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020.

Burden of disease in francophone Africa, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Background: Peer-reviewed literature on health is almost exclusively published in English, limiting the uptake of research for decision making in francophone African countries. We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to assess the burden of disease in francophone Africa and inform health professionals and their partners in the region.

Methods: We assessed the burden of disease in the 21 francophone African countries and compared the results with those for their non-francophone counterparts in three economic communities: the Economic Community of West African States, the Economic Community of Central African States, and the Southern African Development Community.

Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017.

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5, despite the existence of vaccines against many of their aetiologies. Furthermore, more than half of these deaths occur in Africa. Geospatial models can provide highly detailed estimates of trends subnationally, at the level where implementation of health policies has the greatest impact.

Capturing the true burden of Shigella and ETEC: The way forward.

The mortality and morbidity burden estimation of diarrheal diseases (DD), and Shigella and Enterotoxigenic E. Coli (ETEC) varies among different studies and by the models used for producing these estimates. Understanding the real burden of these important pathogens will guide public health and policy makers to prioritize resources for accelerating interventions against these enteric infections.

Morbidity and mortality due to shigella and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli diarrhoea: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2016.

Background: Shigella and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) are bacterial pathogens that are frequently associated with diarrhoeal disease, and are a significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study 2016 (GBD 2016) is a systematic, scientific effort to quantify the morbidity and mortality due to over 300 causes of death and disability. We aimed to analyse the global burden of shigella and ETEC diarrhoea according to age, sex, geography, and year from 1990 to 2016.

Rotavirus Vaccination and the Global Burden of Rotavirus Diarrhea Among Children Younger Than 5 Years.

Importance: Rotavirus infection is the global leading cause of diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality among children younger than 5 years.

Objectives: To examine the extent of rotavirus infection among children younger than 5 years by country and the number of deaths averted because of the rotavirus vaccine.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This report builds on findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, a cross-sectional study that measured diarrheal diseases and their etiologic agents.

Morbidity, mortality, and long-term consequences associated with diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection in children younger than 5 years: a meta-analyses study.

Background: The protozoan Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of diarrhoea morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years. However, the true global burden of Cryptosporidium infection in children younger than 5 years might have been underestimated in previous quantifications because it only took account of the acute effects of diarrhoea. We aimed to demonstrate whether there is a causal relation between Cryptosporidium and childhood growth and, if so, to quantify the associated additional burden.

Indirect Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness for the Prevention of Rotavirus Hospitalization: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Two rotavirus vaccines, RotaTeq and Rotarix, are licensed for global use; however, the protection they confer to unvaccinated individuals through indirect effects remains unknown. We systematically reviewed the literature and quantified indirect rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) for preventing rotavirus hospitalization in children aged less than 5 years. From 148 identified abstracts, 14 studies met our eligibility criteria.

Global disability-adjusted life-year estimates of long-term health burden and undernutrition attributable to diarrhoeal diseases in children younger than 5 years.

Background: Diarrhoea is a leading cause of death and illness globally among children younger than 5 years. Mortality and short-term morbidity cause substantial burden of disease but probably underestimate the true effect of diarrhoea on population health. This underestimation is because diarrhoeal diseases can negatively affect early childhood growth, probably through enteric dysfunction and impaired uptake of macronutrients and micronutrients.

Enteroaggregative Escherichia coli Subclinical Infection and Coinfections and Impaired Child Growth in the MAL-ED Cohort Study.

Objective: We evaluated the impact of subclinical enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC) infection alone and in combination with other pathogens in the first 6 months of life on child growth.

Methods: Nondiarrheal samples from 1684 children across 8 Multisite Birth Cohort Study, Malnutrition and Enteric Diseases (MAL-ED) sites in Asia, Africa, and Latin America were tested monthly; more than 90% of children were followed-up twice weekly for the first 6 months of life.

Results: Children with subclinical EAEC infection did not show altered growth between enrollment and 6 months.

Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements.

Background: Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year.

Methods And Findings: We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5) rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013) and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG), 122,322 (GBD) and 215,757 (WHO/CDC).

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study.

Importance: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

Evidence Review: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger.

Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013.

Cholera Outbreak in Grande Comore: 1998-1999.

In 1998, a cholera epidemic in east Africa reached the Comoros Islands, an archipelago in the Mozambique Channel that had not reported a cholera case for more than 20 years. In just a little over 1 year (between January 1998 and March 1999), Grande Comore, the largest island in the Union of the Comoros, reported 7,851 cases of cholera, about 3% of the population. Using case reports and field observations during the medical response, we describe the epidemiology of the 1998-1999 cholera epidemic in Grande Comore.

The scenario approach for countries considering the addition of oral cholera vaccination in cholera preparedness and control plans.

Oral cholera vaccination could be deployed in a diverse range of situations from cholera-endemic areas and locations of humanitarian crises, but no clear consensus exists. The supply of licensed, WHO-prequalified cholera vaccines is not sufficient to meet endemic and epidemic needs worldwide and so prioritisation is needed. We have developed a scenario approach to systematically classify situations in which oral cholera vaccination might be useful.