Publications by authors named "Christopher J Murray"

Background: Nearly two decades ago, the Eight Americas study offered a novel lens for examining health inequities in the USA by partitioning the US population into eight groups based on geography, race, urbanicity, income per capita, and homicide rate. That study found gaps of 12·8 years for females and 15·4 years for males in life expectancy in 2001 across these eight groups. In this study, we aimed to update and expand the original Eight Americas study, examining trends in life expectancy from 2000 to 2021 for ten Americas (analogues to the original eight, plus two additional groups comprising the US Latino population), by year, sex, and age group.

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Aim: To deliver the most wide-ranging set of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) burden estimates for Croatia to date.

Methods: A complex modeling approach with five broad modeling components was used to estimate the disease burden for 12 main infectious syndromes and one residual group, 23 pathogenic bacteria, and 88 bug-drug combinations. This was represented by two relevant counterfactual scenarios: deaths/disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) that are attributable to AMR considering a situation where drug-resistant infections are substituted with sensitive ones, and deaths/DALYs associated with AMR considering a scenario where people with drug-resistant infections would instead present without any infection.

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Importance: While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID.

Objective: To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery.

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Objective: To estimate health care systems' value in treating major illnesses for each US state and identify system characteristics associated with value.

Data Sources: Annual condition-specific death and incidence estimates for each US state from the Global Burden Disease 2019 Study and annual health care spending per person for each state from the National Health Expenditure Accounts.

Study Design: Using non-linear meta-stochastic frontier analysis, mortality incidence ratios for 136 major treatable illnesses were regressed separately on per capita health care spending and key covariates such as age, obesity, smoking, and educational attainment.

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Amber codon suppression for the insertion of non-natural amino acids (nnAAs) is limited by competition with release factor 1 (RF1). Here we describe the genome engineering of a RF1 mutant strain that enhances suppression efficiency during cell-free protein synthesis, without significantly impacting cell growth during biomass production. Specifically, an out membrane protease (OmpT) cleavage site was engineered into the switch loop of RF1, which enables its conditional inactivation during cell lysis.

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Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures.

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Article Synopsis
  • * Between 1990 and 2015, global neonatal tetanus deaths decreased by 90%, and non-neonatal deaths dropped by 81%, yet high mortality rates persisted in countries like Somalia, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Kenya.
  • * The findings emphasize the need for increased vaccination efforts since many tetanus deaths are preventable with existing low-cost vaccines and call for improved data collection to address the issue effectively.
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Introduction: Cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and results in a high economic burden.

Objective: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by US county from 29 cancers.

Design And Setting: Deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the Census Bureau, the NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database from 1980 to 2014 were used.

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Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions.

Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015.

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The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is witnessing an increase in chronic disorders, including mental illness. With ongoing unrest, this is expected to rise. This is the first study to quantify the burden of mental disorders in the EMR.

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Importance: US health care spending has continued to increase, and now accounts for more than 17% of the US economy. Despite the size and growth of this spending, little is known about how spending on each condition varies by age and across time.

Objective: To systematically and comprehensively estimate US spending on personal health care and public health, according to condition, age and sex group, and type of care.

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Importance: Health care spending on children in the United States continues to rise, yet little is known about how this spending varies by condition, age and sex group, and type of care, nor how these patterns have changed over time.

Objective: To provide health care spending estimates for children and adolescents 19 years and younger in the United States from 1996 through 2013, disaggregated by condition, age and sex group, and type of care.

Evidence Review: Health care spending estimates were extracted from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Disease Expenditure 2013 project database.

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Importance: County-level patterns in mortality rates by cause have not been systematically described but are potentially useful for public health officials, clinicians, and researchers seeking to improve health and reduce geographic disparities.

Objectives: To demonstrate the use of a novel method for county-level estimation and to estimate annual mortality rates by US county for 21 mutually exclusive causes of death from 1980 through 2014.

Design, Setting, And Participants: Redistribution methods for garbage codes (implausible or insufficiently specific cause of death codes) and small area estimation methods (statistical methods for estimating rates in small subpopulations) were applied to death registration data from the National Vital Statistics System to estimate annual county-level mortality rates for 21 causes of death.

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Background: We believe that it is important that governments understand the reliability of the mortality data which they have at their disposable to guide policy debates. In many instances, verbal autopsy (VA) will be the only source of mortality data for populations, yet little is known about how the accuracy of VA diagnoses is affected by the reliability of the symptom responses. We previously described the effect of the duration of time between death and VA administration on VA validity.

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Background: One key contextual feature in Verbal Autopsy (VA) is the time between death and survey administration, or recall period. This study quantified the effect of recall period on VA performance by using a paired dataset in which two VAs were administered for a single decedent.

Methods: This study used information from the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) Study, which collected VAs for "gold standard" cases where cause of death (COD) was supported by clinical criteria.

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Objective: The prevalence of diabetes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is among the highest in the world. We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study to calculate the burden of diabetes in the EMR.

Research Design And Methods: The burden of diabetes and burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) were calculated for each of the 22 countries in the EMR between 1990 and 2013.

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Background: Malaria control has not been routinely informed by the assessment of subnational variation in malaria deaths. We combined data from the Malaria Atlas Project and the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate malaria mortality across sub-Saharan Africa on a grid of 5 km from 1990 through 2015.

Methods: We estimated malaria mortality using a spatiotemporal modeling framework of geolocated data (i.

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Background: Child and maternal health outcomes have notably improved in Mexico since 1990, whereas rising adult mortality rates defy traditional epidemiological transition models in which decreased death rates occur across all ages. These trends suggest Mexico is experiencing a more complex, dissonant health transition than historically observed. Enduring inequalities between states further emphasise the need for more detailed health assessments over time.

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Background: The trends of COPD mortality and prevalence over the past 2 decades across all provinces remain unknown in China. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the mortality and prevalence of COPD during 1990 to 2013 at a provincial level.

Methods: Following the general analytic strategy used in GBD 2013, we analyzed the age- sex- and province-specific mortality and prevalence of COPD in China.

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Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013.

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Objective:  To quantify the dose-response associations between total physical activity and risk of breast cancer, colon cancer, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke events.

Design:  Systematic review and Bayesian dose-response meta-analysis.

Data Sources:  PubMed and Embase from 1980 to 27 February 2016, and references from relevant systematic reviews.

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Article Synopsis
  • International funding for HIV help in sub-Saharan Africa has been slowing down since 2000, making it hard to provide treatment for everyone who needs it.
  • The study looked at efficiency in health facilities in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia to see how well they use their resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART).
  • Results showed that the average efficiency in these facilities was below 50%, and improvements could allow them to provide many more ART visits.
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