Publications by authors named "Christopher J L Murray"

Background: The Human Development Index (HDI)-a composite metric encompassing a population's life expectancy, education, and income-is used widely for assessing and comparing human development and wellbeing at the country level, but does not account for within-country inequality. In this study of the USA, we aimed to adapt the HDI framework to measure the HDI at an individual level to examine disparities in the distribution of wellbeing by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and geographical location.

Methods: We used individual-level data on adults aged 25 years and older from the 2008-21 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample.

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  • Liver cancer is a major health crisis in Mongolia, with the country reporting the highest age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for liver cancer globally in 2019, reflecting a severe public health burden.* -
  • Analysis revealed that alcohol consumption, as well as viral hepatitis B and C, significantly contribute to liver cancer cases in Mongolia, with alcohol-related DALYs being 29 times higher than the global average, and hepatitis-related cases also vastly increased compared to global statistics.* -
  • The study indicated a continuous rise in liver cancer incidence and deaths over the past 30 years, with specific trends showing higher rates in males for alcohol and hepatitis B, while females had higher incidences of hepatitis C and non
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Background: Cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted for many interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis, but they have not been conducted for all interventions that are currently recommended in all countries. To support national decision makers in the effective allocation of resources, we conducted a meta-regression analysis of published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for interventions for these causes, and predicted ICERs for 14 recommended interventions for Global Fund-eligible countries.

Methods: In the meta-regression analysis, we used data from the Tufts University Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (Boston, MA, USA) Cost-Effectiveness Registries (the CEA Registry beginning in 1976 and the Global Health CEA registry beginning in 1995) up to Jan 1, 2018.

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Cohort and case-control data have suggested an association between low to moderate alcohol consumption and decreased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet results from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies designed to reduce bias have shown either no or a harmful association. Here we conducted an updated systematic review and re-evaluated existing cohort, case-control, and MR data using the burden of proof meta-analytical framework. Cohort and case-control data show low to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with decreased IHD risk - specifically, intake is inversely related to IHD and myocardial infarction morbidity in both sexes and IHD mortality in males - while pooled MR data show no association, confirming that self-reported versus genetically predicted alcohol use data yield conflicting findings about the alcohol-IHD relationship.

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Importance: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. Accurate and updated measures of stroke burden are needed to guide public health policies.

Objective: To present burden estimates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the US in 2019 and describe trends from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and geographic location.

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Objective: Monitoring trends in key population health indicators is important for informing health policies. The aim of this study was to examine population health trends in Canada over the past 30 years in relation to other countries.

Methods: We used data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, life expectancy (LE), and child mortality for Canada and other countries between 1990 and 2019 provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study.

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Chewing tobacco use poses serious health risks; yet it has not received as much attention as other tobacco-related products. This study synthesizes existing evidence regarding the health impacts of chewing tobacco while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of chewing tobacco and seven health outcomes, drawing on 103 studies published from 1970 to 2023.

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  • The study assessed the health impact of kidney dysfunction as a metabolic risk factor in 21 countries of the North Africa and Middle East region between 1990 and 2019, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.
  • In 2019, kidney dysfunction led to approximately 296,632 deaths in the region, reflecting a significant increase since 1990, with countries like Afghanistan and Egypt showing the highest death rates associated with this condition.
  • The findings highlighted the role of kidney dysfunction in contributing to various cardiovascular diseases, urging policymakers to enhance prevention and management strategies to mitigate its broader health implications.
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Despite a gradual decline in smoking rates over time, exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) continues to cause harm to nonsmokers, who are disproportionately children and women living in low- and middle-income countries. We comprehensively reviewed the literature published by July 2022 concerning the adverse impacts of SHS exposure on nine health outcomes. Following, we quantified each exposure-response association accounting for various sources of uncertainty and evaluated the strength of the evidence supporting our analyses using the Burden of Proof Risk Function methodology.

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The health impacts of intimate partner violence against women and childhood sexual abuse are not fully understood. Here we conducted a systematic review by comprehensively searching seven electronic databases for literature on intimate partner violence-associated and childhood sexual abuse-associated health effects. Following the burden of proof methodology, we evaluated the evidence strength linking intimate partner violence and/or childhood sexual abuse to health outcomes supported by at least three studies.

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Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate drug use disorders which are a major cause of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR).

Methods: This article is a part of the global burden of diseases (GBD), injuries, and risk factors 2019 study. The GBD modeling approach was used to estimate population-level prevalence of drug use disorders.

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Evaluating cross-country variability on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis (TB) may provide urgent inputs to control programs as countries recover from the pandemic. We compared expected TB notifications, modeled using trends in annual TB notifications from 2013-2019, with observed TB notifications to compute the observed to expected (OE) ratios for 170 countries. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to identify the covariates, out of 27 pandemic- and tuberculosis-relevant variables, that had the strongest explanatory power for log OE ratios.

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  • Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers pose significant global health challenges, making it essential to analyze their burden for effective health policies.
  • The study utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study to assess cancer incidence, mortality, and life years lost across 204 countries, linking these to socio-demographic factors.
  • Findings revealed approximately 370,000 cases and 199,000 deaths for lip and oral cavity cancer, and 167,000 cases and 114,000 deaths for other pharyngeal cancers in 2019, with smoking being the leading risk factor for these cancers, especially in low and middle SDI regions.
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  • Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting women worldwide, with the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region facing significant challenges related to its increasing burden and risk factors.
  • Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 revealed that in 2019, there were over 835,000 cases of BC among females in the NAME region, leading to over 35,000 deaths and significantly high years of life lost (YLLs).
  • The primary contributor to the rising incidence of BC is the increasing age-specific rates, while behavioral factors, particularly high fasting plasma glucose, have been identified as major risk contributors to the disease burden among women.
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  • Estimating health loss trends in Peru from 1990 to 2019 is crucial for improving healthcare resource allocation and system performance, using data from the Global Burden of Disease study.
  • The Peruvian population rose to 33.9 million by 2019, with life expectancy at birth increasing from 69.2 to 80.3 years, largely due to a decrease in under-5 mortality and infectious diseases, while disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) showed a decline in overall health burden.
  • There was a notable shift towards non-communicable diseases as the leading cause of health loss, with major contributors to DALYs in 2019 including neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and lifestyle
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Background: Norway is a high-income nation with universal tax-financed health care and among the highest per person health spending in the world. This study estimates Norwegian health expenditures by health condition, age, and sex, and compares it with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

Methods: Government budgets, reimbursement databases, patient registries, and prescription databases were combined to estimate spending for 144 health conditions, 38 age and sex groups, and eight types of care (GPs; physiotherapists & chiropractors; specialized outpatient; day patient; inpatient; prescription drugs; home-based care; and nursing homes) totaling 174,157,766 encounters.

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  • Air pollution is a significant health risk in North Africa and the Middle East, contributing to high levels of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yet the specific impacts of different pollution types on health across various populations remain under-researched.
  • The study utilized data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 to analyze the effects of particulate matter (PM) and ozone pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries from 1990 to 2019, incorporating various types of air pollution and attributions to specific health outcomes.
  • Findings revealed a 44.5% decrease in the age-standardized DALY rate from 1990 to 2019, with Afghanistan, Yemen
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