Learning patterns of HIV-1 resistance to broadly neutralizing antibodies with reduced subtype bias using multi-task learning.

The ability to predict HIV-1 resistance to broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) will increase bnAb therapeutic benefits. Machine learning is a powerful approach for such prediction. One challenge is that some HIV-1 subtypes in currently available training datasets are underrepresented, which likely affects models' generalizability across subtypes.

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study.

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. (p24) and (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994-2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011-2018) under continuous surveillance.

Quantification of the time-varying epidemic growth rate and of the delays between symptom onset and presenting to healthcare for the mpox epidemic in the UK in 2022.

The mpox epidemic in the UK began in May 2022, with rates of new cases unexpectedly and rapidly declining during August 2022. Interpreting trends in infection requires disentangling the underlying growth rate of cases from the delay from symptom onset to presenting to healthcare. We developed a nowcasting Bayesian method which incorporates time-varying delays (EpiLine) to quantify the changes in the delay from symptom onset to healthcare presentation and the underlying mpox growth rate over the period May-August 2022 in the UK.

Drivers of epidemic dynamics in real time from daily digital COVID-19 measurements.

Understanding the drivers of respiratory pathogen spread is challenging, particularly in a timely manner during an ongoing epidemic. In this work, we present insights that we obtained using daily data from the National Health Service COVID-19 app for England and Wales and that we shared with health authorities in almost real time. Our indicator of the reproduction number () was available days earlier than other estimates, with an innovative capability to decompose () into contact rates and probabilities of infection.

Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage.

Introduction: To prioritize and tailor interventions for ending AIDS by 2030 in Africa, it is important to characterize the population groups in which HIV viraemia is concentrating.

Methods: We analysed HIV testing and viral load data collected between 2013-2019 from the open, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, to estimate HIV seroprevalence and population viral suppression over time by gender, one-year age bands and residence in inland and fishing communities. All estimates were standardized to the underlying source population using census data.

Increasing intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity despite declining HIV incidence in Uganda.

HIV incidence has been declining in Africa with scale-up of HIV interventions. However, there is limited data on HIV evolutionary trends in African populations with waning epidemics. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a twenty-five-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort.

Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study.

Background: In the last decade, universally available antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to greatly improved health and survival of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, but new infections continue to appear. The design of effective prevention strategies requires the demographic characterisation of individuals acting as sources of infection, which is the aim of this study.

Methods: Between 2014 and 2018, the HPTN 071 PopART study was conducted to quantify the public health benefits of ART.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda.

Lineage replacement and evolution captured by 3 years of the United Kingdom Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.

The Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey (ONS-CIS) is the largest surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the community, and collected data on the United Kingdom (UK) epidemic from April 2020 until March 2023 before being paused. Here, we report on the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 determined by analysing the sequenced samples collected by the ONS-CIS during this period. We observed a series of sweeps or partial sweeps, with each sweeping lineage having a distinct growth advantage compared to their predecessors, although this was also accompanied by a gradual fall in average viral burdens from June 2021 to March 2023.

Correction: Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.

Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.

In this study, we evaluated the impact of viral variant, in addition to other variables, on within-host viral burden, by analysing cycle threshold (Ct) values derived from nose and throat swabs, collected as part of the UK COVID-19 Infection Survey. Because viral burden distributions determined from community survey data can be biased due to the impact of variant epidemiology on the time-since-infection of samples, we developed a method to explicitly adjust observed Ct value distributions to account for the expected bias. By analysing the adjusted Ct values using partial least squares regression, we found that among unvaccinated individuals with no known prior exposure, viral burden was 44% lower among Alpha variant infections, compared to those with the predecessor strain, B.

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) now arise in the context of heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron BA.1 genomes, we identified >6,000 introductions of the antigenically distinct VOC into England and analyzed their local transmission and dispersal history.

Evaluating whole HIV-1 genome sequence for estimation of incidence and migration in a rural South African community.

South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in the world, with HIV prevalence and transmission patterns varying greatly between provinces. Transmission between regions is still poorly understood, but phylodynamics of HIV-1 evolution can reveal how many infections are attributable to contacts outside a given community. We analysed whole genome HIV-1 genetic sequences to estimate incidence and the proportion of transmissions between communities in Hlabisa, a rural South African community.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda.

How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic.

Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, our model accurately describes the main features of the actual global development of the pandemic demonstrated by the high degree of coherence between the model and global data. The validated model allows for an exploration of alternative policy efficacies (reducing air travel and/or introducing different degrees of compulsory immigration quarantine upon arrival to a country) in delaying the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus is suggestive of similar efficacy in anticipating the spread of future global disease outbreaks.

Epidemiological impacts of the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales throughout its first year.

The NHS COVID-19 app was launched in England and Wales in September 2020, with a Bluetooth-based contact tracing functionality designed to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We show that user engagement and the app's epidemiological impacts varied according to changing social and epidemic characteristics throughout the app's first year. We describe the interaction and complementarity of manual and digital contact tracing approaches.

Frequency matters: comparison of drug resistance mutation detection by Sanger and next-generation sequencing in HIV-1.

Background: Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is gradually replacing Sanger sequencing (SS) as the primary method for HIV genotypic resistance testing. However, there are limited systematic data on comparability of these methods in a clinical setting for the presence of low-abundance drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and their dependency on the variant-calling thresholds.

Methods: To compare the HIV-DRMs detected by SS and NGS, we included participants enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with SS and NGS sequences available with sample collection dates ≤7 days apart.

Uptake of medical male circumcision with household-based testing, and the association of traditional male circumcision and HIV infection.

Objectives: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is an important component of combination HIV prevention. Inclusion of traditionally circumcised HIV negative men in VMMC uptake campaigns may be important if traditional male circumcision is less protective against HIV acquisition than VMMC.

Methods: We used data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 071 (PopART) study.

Large-scale calibration and simulation of COVID-19 epidemiologic scenarios to support healthcare planning.

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided stiff challenges for planning and resourcing in health services in the UK and worldwide. Epidemiological models can provide simulations of how infectious disease might progress in a population given certain parameters. We adapted an agent-based model of COVID-19 to inform planning and decision-making within a healthcare setting, and created a software framework that automates processes for calibrating the model parameters to health data and allows the model to be run at national population scale on National Health Service (NHS) infrastructure.