Shape selection in Landsat time series: a tool for monitoring forest dynamics.

We present a new methodology for fitting nonparametric shape-restricted regression splines to time series of Landsat imagery for the purpose of modeling, mapping, and monitoring annual forest disturbance dynamics over nearly three decades. For each pixel and spectral band or index of choice in temporal Landsat data, our method delivers a smoothed rendition of the trajectory constrained to behave in an ecologically sensible manner, reflecting one of seven possible 'shapes'. It also provides parameters summarizing the patterns of each change including year of onset, duration, magnitude, and pre- and postchange rates of growth or recovery.

Comparative assessment of methods for estimating tree canopy cover across a rural-to-urban gradient in the mid-Atlantic region of the USA.

Tree canopy cover significantly affects human and wildlife habitats, local hydrology, carbon cycles, fire behavior, and ecosystem services of all types. In addition, changes in tree canopy cover are both indicators and consequences of a wide variety of disturbances from urban development to climate change. There is growing demand for this information nationwide and across all land uses.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction.

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed approximately 11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth.