Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.

Funding and services needed to achieve universal health coverage: applications of global, regional, and national estimates of utilisation of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions from 1990 to 2016, and unit costs from 1995 to 2016.

Background: To inform plans to achieve universal health coverage (UHC), we estimated utilisation and unit cost of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions, did a decomposition analysis of utilisation, and estimated additional services and funds needed to meet a UHC standard for utilisation.

Methods: We collated 1175 country-years of outpatient data on utilisation from 130 countries and 2068 country-years of inpatient data from 128 countries. We did meta-regression analyses of annual visits and admissions per capita by sex, age, location, and year with DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool.

Robust quantification of fish early life CO sensitivities via serial experimentation.

Despite the remarkable expansion of laboratory studies, robust estimates of single species CO sensitivities remain largely elusive. We conducted a meta-analysis of 20 CO exposure experiments conducted over 6 years on offspring of wild Atlantic silversides () to robustly constrain CO effects on early life survival and growth. We conclude that early stages of this species are generally tolerant to CO levels of approximately 2000 µatm, likely because they already experience these conditions on diel to seasonal timescales.

Phylogenetic patterns of trait and trait plasticity evolution: Insights from amphibian embryos.

Environmental variation favors the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. For many species, we understand the costs and benefits of different phenotypes, but we lack a broad understanding of how plastic traits evolve across large clades. Using identical experiments conducted across North America, we examined prey responses to predator cues.

Coupling among Microbial Communities, Biogeochemistry, and Mineralogy across Biogeochemical Facies.

Physical properties of sediments are commonly used to define subsurface lithofacies and these same physical properties influence subsurface microbial communities. This suggests an (unexploited) opportunity to use the spatial distribution of facies to predict spatial variation in biogeochemically relevant microbial attributes. Here, we characterize three biogeochemical facies-oxidized, reduced, and transition-within one lithofacies and elucidate relationships among facies features and microbial community biomass, richness, and composition.

The global burden of low back pain: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study.

Objective: To estimate the global burden of low back pain (LBP).

Methods: LBP was defined as pain in the area on the posterior aspect of the body from the lower margin of the twelfth ribs to the lower glutaeal folds with or without pain referred into one or both lower limbs that lasts for at least one day. Systematic reviews were performed of the prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and mortality risk of LBP.

The global burden of musculoskeletal conditions for 2010: an overview of methods.

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of methods used for estimating the burden from musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions in the Global Burden of Diseases 2010 study. It should be read in conjunction with the disease-specific MSK papers published in Annals of Rheumatic Diseases. Burden estimates (disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) were made for five specific MSK conditions: hip and/or knee osteoarthritis (OA), low back pain (LBP), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), gout and neck pain, and an 'other MSK conditions' category.

The global burden of neck pain: estimates from the global burden of disease 2010 study.

Objective: To estimate the global burden of neck pain.

Methods: Neck pain was defined as pain in the neck with or without pain referred into one or both upper limbs that lasts for at least 1 day. Systematic reviews were performed of the prevalence, incidence, remission, duration and mortality risk of neck pain.

A glucose meter evaluation co-designed with both health professional and consumer input.

Health consumer's input into assessment of medical device safety is traditionally given either as part of study outcome (trial participants) or during post marketing surveillance. Direct consumer input into the methodological design of device assessment is less common. We discuss the difference in requirements for assessment of a measuring device from the consumer and clinician perspectives, using the example of hand held glucose meters.

Gas phase controlled deposition of high quality large-area graphene films.

A gas phase controlled graphene synthesis resembling a CVD process that does not critically depend on cooling rates is reported. The controllable catalytic CVD permits high quality large-area graphene formation with deft control over the thickness from monolayers to thick graphitic structures at temperatures as low as 750 degrees C.

Myocardial subproteomic analysis of a constitutively active Rac1-expressing transgenic mouse with lethal myocardial hypertrophy.

A two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE)-based proteomic approach was used to study a transgenic mouse model of acerbated dilated cardiomyopathy in which the small monomeric GTPase, Rac1, was constitutively expressed exclusively in the myocardium. A subfractionation procedure allowed for the focused analysis of both cytoplasmic and myofilament protein-enriched extracts of ventricular tissue from Rac1 transgenic and age-matched nontransgenic (NTG) mice. The majority of these mice displayed severe hypertrophy (heart-to-body weight ratios >2-fold greater in the Rac1 mice) and died from overt heart failure between days 14 and 17.

Onset and manipulation of self-assembled morphology in freely standing polymer trilayer films.

We have used reflected light microscopy to study the lateral morphology which self-assembles at elevated temperatures in films consisting of a polyisoprene (PI) layer capped on both sides by polystyrene (PS) layers: freely standing PS/PI/PS trilayer films. Heating of the trilayer films causes the formation of a periodic, lateral morphology which is driven by the attractive dispersion interaction acting across the film. In our studies of the temperature dependence of the morphology, we find that the onset temperature for the formation of the morphology increases with increasing heating rate.

A new test set for validating predictions of protein-ligand interaction.

We present a large test set of protein-ligand complexes for the purpose of validating algorithms that rely on the prediction of protein-ligand interactions. The set consists of 305 complexes with protonation states assigned by manual inspection. The following checks have been carried out to identify unsuitable entries in this set: (1) assessing the involvement of crystallographically related protein units in ligand binding; (2) identification of bad clashes between protein side chains and ligand; and (3) assessment of structural errors, and/or inconsistency of ligand placement with crystal structure electron density.

PRO_SELECT: combining structure-based drug design and array-based chemistry for rapid lead discovery. 2. The development of a series of highly potent and selective factor Xa inhibitors.

In silico screening of combinatorial libraries prior to synthesis promises to be a valuable aid to lead discovery. PRO_SELECT, a tool for the virtual screening of libraries for fit to a protein active site, has been used to find novel leads against the serine protease factor Xa. A small seed template was built upon using three iterations of library design, virtual screening, synthesis, and biological testing.