Modeling the Risk of Entry, Establishment, Spread, Containment, and Economic Impact of Tilletia indica, the Cause of Karnal Bunt of Wheat, Using an Australian Context.

ABSTRACT Modeling techniques were developed to quantify the probability of Tilletia indica entering and establishing in Western Australia (WA), and to simulate spread, containment, and the economic impact of the pathogen. Entry of T. indica is most likely to occur through imports of bulk grain or fertilizer (0.