Long-term probabilistic forecasts of activity mitigation in English hospitals: a national elicitation exercise providing an outside view based on judgements of experts in support of the New Hospital Programme.

Objectives: The planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such assumptions are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from an inside view. To counteract these limitations, we elicited an outside view of probabilistic forecasts based on judgements of experts about the extent to which various types of hospital activity might be mitigated over 20 years, in support of the New Hospital Programme (NHP) in the English National Health Service.

Training probation officers in case formulation for personality disordered offenders.

Background: The UK Strategy on Managing High Risk of Serious Harm Offenders with Severe Personality Disorder proposes an important role for offender managers in completing case formulations about such offenders. There is little evidence on whether this can be achieved.

Aim: Our primary aims were to devise, implement and evaluate training in case formulation for offender managers.

The role of national policies and mental health care systems in the development of community care and community support: an international analysis.

Background: The development of adequate community support of persons with severe mental health problems is an ongoing effort. National policies and national health and social care systems play an important role in the effectiveness of these efforts.

Aims: To get a better understanding of the ways in which national policies and (mental) health care systems can enhance the development of community support and social inclusion for people with severe mental illness.

Addressing the inverse care law: the role of community paediatric services.

Background: Children's health suffers disproportionately from the effects of poverty. The inverse care law states that those who need care the most are the least likely to receive it. Community paediatricians are well placed to address health inequalities in children.

Longitudinal HCR-20 scores in a high-secure psychiatric hospital.

Background: The HCR-20 is a widely used 20 item structured professional judgement aid to risk assessment and management, but longitudinal studies of its value are rare, particularly with people at high risk of reoffending.

Aims: To investigate whether the HCR-20 discriminates between patient subgroups in one high-security hospital in England, whether scores reduce with hospital treatment and whether lower scores predict discharge.

Methods: Repeated HCR-20 ratings were made by clinical teams across five services within the hospital, two of them (women and men with intellectual disability) national services.

Ward features and stigma experiences of mental health service users in Belgium and England: a replication study.

Background: Stigmatizing attitudes can impair the quality of life of people with mental health problems. Psychiatric hospitalization can generate stigma. Are some approaches to care less stigmatizing than others?

Aims: This study was designed to replicate findings from Flanders, Belgium in an English context, investigating how ward size and treatment approach affected service users' expectations and experiences of stigma.

Campaign appears to influence subjective experience of stigma.

Background And Aim: An English mental health trust implemented a strategy to dispel the stigma surrounding mental illness and service users. The purpose of this study was to evaluate its impact.

Method: A questionnaire was mailed to 600 service users, selected at random, to evaluate the campaign's impact.