Improving vaccination coverage and offering vaccine to all school-age children allowed uninterrupted in-person schooling in King County, WA: Modeling analysis.

The rapid spread of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants combined with slowing pace of vaccination in Fall 2021 created uncertainty around the future trajectory of the epidemic in King County, Washington, USA. We analyzed the benefits of offering vaccination to children ages 5-11 and expanding the overall vaccination coverage using mathematical modeling. We adapted a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to data from King County, Washington, to simulate scenarios of vaccinating children aged 5-11 with different starting dates and different proportions of physical interactions (PPI) in schools being restored.

Confronting spatial capture-recapture models with realistic animal movement simulations.

Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have emerged as a robust method to estimate the population density of mobile animals. However, model evaluation has generally been based on data simulated from simplified representations of animal space use. Here, we generated data from animal movement simulated from a mechanistic individual-based model, in which movement emerges from the individual's response to a changing environment (i.

Mathematical Modeling of Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine clinical trials assess efficacy against disease (VE), the ability to block symptomatic COVID-19. They only partially discriminate whether VE is mediated by preventing infection completely, which is defined as detection of virus in the airways (VE), or by preventing symptoms despite infection (VE). Vaccine efficacy against transmissibility given infection (VE), the decrease in secondary transmissions from infected vaccine recipients, is also not measured.

COVID-19 vaccines that reduce symptoms but do not block infection need higher coverage and faster rollout to achieve population impact.

Trial results for two COVID-19 vaccines suggest at least 90% efficacy against symptomatic disease (VE). It remains unknown whether this efficacy is mediated by lowering SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility (VE) or development of symptoms after infection (VE). We aim to assess and compare the population impact of vaccines with different efficacy profiles (VE and VE) satisfying licensure criteria.

Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data.

Background: In late March 2020, a "Stay Home, Stay Healthy" order was issued in Washington State in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 1, a 4-phase reopening plan began. We investigated whether adjunctive prevention strategies would allow less restrictive physical distancing to avoid second epidemic waves and secure safe school reopening.

Moving in the Anthropocene: Global reductions in terrestrial mammalian movements.

Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact.

Memory, not just perception, plays an important role in terrestrial mammalian migration.

One of the key questions regarding the underlying mechanisms of mammalian land migrations is how animals select where to go. Most studies assume perception of resources as the navigational mechanism. The possible role of memory that would allow forecasting conditions at distant locations and times based on information about environmental conditions from previous years has been little studied.

Memory Effects on Movement Behavior in Animal Foraging.

An individual's choices are shaped by its experience, a fundamental property of behavior important to understanding complex processes. Learning and memory are observed across many taxa and can drive behaviors, including foraging behavior. To explore the conditions under which memory provides an advantage, we present a continuous-space, continuous-time model of animal movement that incorporates learning and memory.

What is the animal doing? Tools for exploring behavioural structure in animal movements.

Movement data provide a window - often our only window - into the cognitive, social and biological processes that underlie the behavioural ecology of animals in the wild. Robust methods for identifying and interpreting distinct modes of movement behaviour are of great importance, but complicated by the fact that movement data are complex, multivariate and dependent. Many different approaches to exploratory analysis of movement have been developed to answer similar questions, and practitioners are often at a loss for how to choose an appropriate tool for a specific question.