Modeling Climate-Driven Vegetation Changes Under Contrasting Temperate and Arid Conditions in the Mediterranean Basin.

This study investigates climate change impacts on spontaneous vegetation, focusing on the Mediterranean basin, a hotspot for climatic changes. Two case study areas, Monti Sibillini (central Italy, temperate) and Sidi Makhlouf (Southern Tunisia, arid), were selected for their contrasting climates and vegetation. Using WorldClim's CMCC-ESM2 climate model, future vegetation distribution was predicted for 2050 and 2080 under SSP 245 (optimistic) and 585 (pessimistic) scenarios.