Montane rainforest dynamics under changes in climate and human impact during the past millennia in northern Madagascar.

Although it is well known that humans substantially altered the Malagasy ecosystems, the timing of the human arrival as well as the extension of their environmental impact is yet not well understood. This research aims to study the influence of early human impact and climate change on rainforests and wildlife in northern Madagascar during the past millennia. Results obtained from the lake sediment in a montane environment showed significant changes in vegetation within the lake catchment associated with a major drought that started approximately 1100 years ago.

Shut down of the South American summer monsoon during the penultimate glacial.

We analysed changes in mean annual air temperature (MAAT), vegetation and biomass burning on a long and continuous lake-peat sediment record from the Colônia basin, southeastern Brazil, examining the responses of a wet tropical rainforest over the last 180 ka. Stronger southern atmospheric circulation up to the latitude of Colônia was found for the penultimate glacial with lower temperatures than during the last glacial, while strengthening of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) circulation started during the last interglacial and progressively enhanced a longer wet summer season from 95 ka until the present. Past MAAT variations and fire history were possibly modulated by eccentricity, although with signatures which differ in average and in amplitude between the last 180 ka.

When archives are missing, deciphering the effects of public policies and climate variability on the Brazilian semi-arid region using sediment core studies.

The northeastern region of Brazil is the most densely populated and biodiverse semi-arid regions of the planet. Effects of the natural climate variability and colonization on the landscape have been described since the beginning of the 16th century but little is known about their effects on natural resources. Climate projections predict temperatures above 40 °C and an increase in the number and duration of droughts at the end of the 21st century with strong societal impacts.

Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change.

Tree cover is a key variable for ecosystem functioning, and is widely used to study tropical ecosystems. But its determinants and their relative importance are still a matter of debate, especially because most regional and global analyses have not considered the influence of agricultural practices. More information is urgently needed regarding how human practices influence vegetation structure.

Present-day central African forest is a legacy of the 19th century human history.

The populations of light-demanding trees that dominate the canopy of central African forests are now aging. Here, we show that the lack of regeneration of these populations began ca. 165 ya (around 1850) after major anthropogenic disturbances ceased.

Climatic and cultural changes in the west Congo Basin forests over the past 5000 years.

Central Africa includes the world's second largest rainforest block. The ecology of the region remains poorly understood, as does its vegetation and archaeological history. However, over the past 20 years, multidisciplinary scientific programmes have enhanced knowledge of old human presence and palaeoenvironments in the forestry block of Central Africa.

Comment on "Intensifying weathering and land use in Iron Age Central Africa".

Bayon et al. (Reports, 9 March 2012, p. 1219) claim that the "rainforest crisis" in Central Africa centered around 2500 years before the present "was not triggered by natural climatic factors" and that it was caused by widespread deforestation resulting from the arrival of the Bantu colonists.

A point-process model for variance-occupancy-abundance relationships.

The relationship between species abundance, the variance of the number of individuals, and species occupancy is a fundamental ecological characteristic of a community. Moreover, this relationship varies across scales, and any model for the variance-occupancy-abundance (VOA) relationship has to address its scale dependency in a consistent way. In this study, point-process theory was used to define a multiscale model that jointly predicts the VOA relationship across scales in a consistent way.

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil.

Objective: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases.

Methods: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases.

Rift Valley fever in West Africa: the role of space in endemicity.

Rift Valley fever is an endemic vector-borne disease in West Africa, which mainly affects domestic ruminants and occasionally humans. The aetiological mechanisms of its endemicity remain under debate. We used a simple spatially explicit model to assess the possibility of endemicity without wild animals providing a permanent virus reservoir.

Effects of climate and different management strategies on Aedes aegypti breeding sites: a longitudinal survey in Brasília (DF, Brazil).

Objective: To determine the influence of climate and of environmental vector control with or without insecticide on Aedes aegypti larval indices and pupae density.

Methods: An 18-month longitudinal survey of infestation of Ae. aegypti immature stages was conducted for the 1015 residences (premises) of Vila Planalto, an area of Brasilia where the Breteau Index was about 40 before the study.

Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics.

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models.