Will the Balearics and the Canary Islands meet the European Union targets for municipal waste? A comparative study from 2000 to 2035.

Recycling and selective collection rates in touristic islands are low, and they have to be increased to move them towards a more circular economy. This paper attempts to determine whether it will be possible to achieve the European Union's (EU) legally binding targets regarding the different fractions of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the two Spanish regions with the highest per capita MSW generation rates. After reviewing the MSW generation literature in touristic islands, the driving forces affecting MSW generation in the Balearics and Canary archipelagos from 2000 to 2018 are identified.

Modelling the driving forces of the municipal solid waste generation in touristic islands. A case study of the Balearic Islands (2000-2030).

The improvement of municipal solid waste (MSW) management in touristic islands has not been sufficiently studied, and by using the Spanish Balearics as a case study, a hybrid methodology has been developed which: (i) identifies the three most influential variables (driving forces) of the MSW generation system through an econometric model based on official historical data for a given period (2000-2014), (ii) develops a System Dynamics (SD) model of the evolution of MSW generation in this archipelago based on the same data and time period, and (iii) forecasts the performance of the MSW management system for a future period (2015-2030). Six different scenarios are considered with varying assumptions, objectives and management policies, while applying Scenario Analysis to the SD model developed. The results show that by maintaining the current policies ("business as usual" BAU scenario) it will be impossible to meet the goals set by the Regional and the Spanish National Plans based on the European MSW Directive.