A data-driven analysis on the mediation effect of compartment models between control measures and COVID-19 epidemics.

By collecting various control policies taken by 127 countries/territories during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic until July 2nd, 2020, we evaluate their impacts on the epidemic dynamics quantitatively through a combination of the multiple linear regression, neural-network-based nonlinear regression and sensitivity analysis. Remarkable differences in the public health policies are observed across these countries, which affect the spreading rate and infected population size to a great extent. Several key dynamical features, like the normalized cumulative numbers of confirmed/cured/death cases on the 100th day and the half time, show statistically significant linear correlations with the control measures, which thereby confirms their dramatic impacts.

The spatial dynamics of immune response upon virus infection through hybrid dynamical computational model.

Introduction: The immune responses play important roles in the course of disease initiation and progression upon virus infection such as SARS-CoV-2. As the tissues consist of spatial structures, the spatial dynamics of immune responses upon viral infection are essential to the outcome of infection.

Methods: A hybrid computational model based on cellular automata coupled with partial differential equations is developed to simulate the spatial patterns and dynamics of the immune responses of tissue upon virus infection with several different immune movement modes.

Initial 24-h perfusion index of ICU admission is associated with acute kidney injury in perioperative critically ill patients: A retrospective cohort analysis.

Background: The relationship between perfusion index (PI) and organ dysfunction in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is not clear. This study aimed to explore the relationship between PI and renal function in the perioperative critical care setting and evaluate the predictive efficiency of PI on patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) in the ICU.

Methods: This retrospective analysis involved 12,979 patients who had undergone an operation and were admitted to the ICU in Peking Union Medical College Hospital from January 2014 to December 2019.

Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China.

In this paper, based on the Akaike information criterion, root mean square error and robustness coefficient, a rational evaluation of various epidemic models/methods, including seven empirical functions, four statistical inference methods and five dynamical models, on their forecasting abilities is carried out. With respect to the outbreak data of COVID-19 epidemics in China, we find that before the inflection point, all models fail to make a reliable prediction. The Logistic function consistently underestimates the final epidemic size, while the Gompertz's function makes an overestimation in all cases.

Origins of oscillation patterns in cyclical thrombocytopenia.

Cyclical thrombocytopenia (CT) is a rare hematological disease characterized by periodic oscillations in circulating platelet counts. In almost all CT patients, other cell lines show no sign of oscillation, but recently a CT patient was reported with significant oscillations in circulating neutrophils (in the same period as the platelets). In this paper, we attempt to understand this phenomenon through a previously published model of human hematopoiesis.

Bifurcation analysis and potential landscapes of the p53-Mdm2 module regulated by the co-activator programmed cell death 5.

The dynamics of p53 play important roles in the regulation of cell fate decisions in response to various stresses, and programmed cell death 5 (PDCD5) functions as a co-activator of p53 that modulates p53 dynamics. In the present paper, we investigated how p53 dynamics are modulated by PDCD5 during the deoxyribose nucleic acid damage response using methods of bifurcation analysis and potential landscape. Our results revealed that p53 activities display rich dynamics under different PDCD5 levels, including monostability, bistability with two stable steady states, oscillations, and the coexistence of a stable steady state (or two states) and an oscillatory state.

PDCD5 functions as a regulator of p53 dynamics in the DNA damage response.

The tumor suppressor p53 plays a central role in cell fate decisions after DNA damage. Programmed Cell Death 5 (PDCD5) interacts with the p53 pathway to promote cell apoptosis. Recombinant human PDCD5 can significantly sensitize different cancers to chemotherapies.

Adiabatic reduction of a model of stochastic gene expression with jump Markov process.

This paper considers adiabatic reduction in a model of stochastic gene expression with bursting transcription considered as a jump Markov process. In this model, the process of gene expression with auto-regulation is described by fast/slow dynamics. The production of mRNA is assumed to follow a compound Poisson process occurring at a rate depending on protein levels (the phenomena called bursting in molecular biology) and the production of protein is a linear function of mRNA numbers.

PDCD5-regulated cell fate decision after ultraviolet-irradiation-induced DNA damage.

Programmed cell death 5 (PDCD5) is a human apoptosis-related molecule that is involved in both the cytoplasmic caspase-3 activity pathway (by regulating Bax translocation from cytoplasm to mitochondria) and the nuclear pathway (by interacting with Tip60). In this study, we developed a mathematical model of the PDCD5-regulated switching of the cell response from DNA repair to apoptosis after ultraviolet irradiation-induced DNA damage. We established the model by combining several hypotheses with experimental observations.

Neutrophil dynamics in response to chemotherapy and G-CSF.

We have used a mathematical model of the combined dynamics of the hematopoietic stem cells and the differentiated neutrophil progeny to examine the effects of periodic chemotherapy in generating neutropenia, and the corresponding response of this system to granulocyte colony stimulating factor given to counteract the neutropenia. We find that there is a significant period of chemotherapy delivery that induces resonance in the system (at a period twice the average neutrophil lifespan from commitment to death) and a corresponding neutropenia suggesting that myelosuppressive protocols should avoid this period to minimize hematopoietic damage. The response to G-CSF is highly variable.