Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills.

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach.

Potential sources of marine plastic from survey beaches in the Arctic and Northeast Atlantic.

Plastic litter is accumulating on pristine northern European beaches, including the European Arctic, and questions remain about the exact origins and sources. Here we investigate plausible fishery and consumer-related sources of beach littering, using a combination of information from expert stakeholder discussions, litter observations and a quantitative tool - a drift model - for forecasting and backtracking likely pathways of pollution. The numerical experiments were co-designed together with practice experts.

Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans.

Dilution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades.

Declining salinities signify that large amounts of fresh water have been added to the northern North Atlantic Ocean since the mid-1960s. We estimate that the Nordic Seas and Subpolar Basins were diluted by an extra 19,000 +/- 5000 cubic kilometers of freshwater input between 1965 and 1995. Fully half of that additional fresh water-about 10,000 cubic kilometers-infiltrated the system in the late 1960s at an approximate rate of 2000 cubic kilometers per year.