Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model.

Objective: To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system.

Methods: The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors.

Factors associated with unanticipated day of surgery deaths in Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals.

Background: Patients of ASA physical status 1, 2, and 3 undergoing elective surgery do not have underlying conditions that are a constant threat to life, and hence should not be expected to be at significant risk for death on the day of surgery.

Methods: We analyzed 815,077 ASA physical status 1, 2, and 3 elective surgery patients in the Department of Veterans Affairs National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database to identify patients who died on the day of surgery. We then attempted to identify factors predictive of unexpected death and to identify potential areas for improvement in care.