Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast.

Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited.

Influence of postoperative complications on long-term survival in liver transplant patients.

Background: Liver transplant (LT) is a complex procedure with frequent postoperative complications. In other surgical procedures such as gastrectomy, esophagectomy or resection of liver metastases, these complications are associated with poorer long-term survival. It is possible this happens in LT but there are not enough data to establish this relationship.

Validation of the Balance of Risk as a Predictor of Liver Transplant Survival in a Spanish Population.

Background: The Balance of Risk (BAR) score is a simple test that combines donor and recipient variables to predict liver transplant success. It has been validated in different publications, with cut-off points of between 15 and 18 points proposed depending on the region. The aim of this study is to test the validity of the BAR score and to find the optimal cut-off point for our population.

Mid-long term oil spill forecast based on logistic regression modelling of met-ocean forcings.

Past major oil spill disasters, such as the Prestige or the Deepwater Horizon accidents, have shown that spilled oil may drift across the ocean for months before being controlled or reaching the coast. However, existing oil spill modelling systems can only provide short-term trajectory simulations, being limited by the typical met-ocean forecast time coverage. In this paper, we propose a methodology for mid-long term (1-6 months) probabilistic predictions of oil spill trajectories, based on a combination of data mining techniques, statistical pattern modelling and probabilistic Lagrangian simulations.

A methodology to assess the probability of marine litter accumulation in estuaries.

In this study, a general methodology that is based on numerical models and statistical analysis is developed to assist in the definition of marine litter cleanup and mitigation strategies at an estuarine scale. The methodology includes four main steps: k-means clustering to identify representative metocean scenarios; dynamic downscaling to obtain high-resolution drivers with which to force a transport model; numerical transport modelling to generate a database of potential litter trajectories; and a statistical analysis of this database to obtain probabilities of litter accumulation. The efficacy of this methodology is demonstrated by its application to an estuary along the northern coast of Spain by comparing the numerical results with field data.

A high-resolution operational forecast system for oil spill response in Belfast Lough.

This paper presents a high-resolution operational forecast system for providing support to oil spill response in Belfast Lough. The system comprises an operational oceanographic module coupled to an oil spill forecast module that is integrated in a user-friendly web application. The oceanographic module is based on Delft3D model which uses daily boundary conditions and meteorological forcing obtained from COPERNICUS and from the UK Meteorological Office.

Oil spill vulnerability assessment integrating physical, biological and socio-economical aspects: application to the Cantabrian coast (Bay of Biscay, Spain).

A methodology has been developed to carry out an integrated oil spill vulnerability index, V, for coastal environments. This index takes into account the main physical, biological and socio-economical characteristics by means of three intermediate indexes. Three different integration methods (worst-case, average and survey-based) along with ESI-based vulnerability scores, V(ESI), proposed for the Cantabrian coast during the Prestige oil spill, have been analyzed and compared in terms of agreement between the classifications obtained with each one for this coastal area.

Towards an operational system for oil-spill forecast over Spanish waters: initial developments and implementation test.

The ESEOO Project, launched after the Prestige crisis, has boosted operational oceanography capacities in Spain, creating new operational oceanographic services and increasing synergies between these new operational tools and already existing systems. In consequence, the present preparedness to face an oil-spill crisis is enhanced, significantly improving the operational response regarding ocean, meteorological and oil-spill monitoring and forecasting. A key aspect of this progress has been the agreement between the scientific community and the Spanish Search and Rescue Institution (SASEMAR), significantly favoured within the ESEOO framework.