Publications by authors named "Carsten F Mantel"

Background: Despite group B Streptococcus (GBS) being a leading cause of maternal and infant morbidity and mortality, no vaccine is currently available. To inform vaccine developers, countries, and funders, we analyzed the key factors likely to influence the demand for a GBS vaccine and the long-term financial sustainability for a vaccine developer.

Methods: Using population-based forecasting, we estimated the demand for a GBS vaccine; using a discounted cash flow model we estimated the financial viability for a vaccine developer.

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The development of vaccines against one or all forms of human leishmaniasis remains hampered by a paucity of investment, at least in part resulting from the lack of well-evidenced and agreed estimates of vaccine demand. Starting from the definition of 4 main use cases (prevention of visceral leishmaniasis, prevention of cutaneous leishmaniasis, prevention of post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis and treatment of post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis), we have estimated the size of each target population, focusing on those endemic countries where incidence levels are sufficiently high to justify decisions to adopt a vaccine. We assumed a dual vaccine delivery strategy, including a wide age-range catch-up campaign before the start of routine immunisation.

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In 2010, global immunization partners posed the question, "Do new vaccine introductions (NVIs) have positive or negative impacts on immunization and health systems of countries?" An Ad-hoc Working Group was formed for WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on immunization (SAGE) to examine this question through five approaches: a published literature review, a grey literature review, in-depth interviews with regional and country immunization staff, in-depth studies of recent NVIs in 3 countries, and a statistical analysis of the impact of NVI on DTP3 coverage in 176 countries. The WHO Health System Framework of building blocks was used to organize the analysis of these data to assess potential areas of impact of NVI on health systems. In April 2012, the Ad-hoc Working Group presented its findings to SAGE.

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We conducted a systematic review of the published literature to examine the impact of new vaccine introduction on countries' immunization and broader health systems. Six publication databases were searched using 104 vaccine and health system-related search terms. The search yielded 15,795 unique articles dating from December 31, 1911 to September 29, 2010.

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