Nonlinear life table response experiment analysis: Decomposing nonlinear and nonadditive population growth responses to changes in environmental drivers.

Life table response experiments (LTREs) decompose differences in population growth rate between environments into separate contributions from each underlying demographic rate. However, most LTRE analyses make the unrealistic assumption that the relationships between demographic rates and environmental drivers are linear and independent, which may result in diminished accuracy when these assumptions are violated. We extend regression LTREs to incorporate nonlinear (second-order) terms and compare the accuracy of both approaches for three previously published demographic datasets.

How climate affects extreme events and hence ecological population models.

Extreme events significantly impact ecosystems and are predicted to increase in frequency and/or magnitude with climate change. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions describe most ecologically relevant extreme events, including hurricanes, wildfires, and disease spread. In climate science, the GEV is widely used as an accurate and flexible tool over large spatial scales (>10  km ) to study how changes in climate shift extreme events.

Poverty dynamics, poverty thresholds and mortality: An age-stage Markovian model.

Recent studies have examined the risk of poverty throughout the life course, but few have considered how transitioning in and out of poverty shape the dynamic heterogeneity and mortality disparities of a cohort at each age. Here we use state-by-age modeling to capture individual heterogeneity in crossing one of three different poverty thresholds (defined as 1×, 2× or 3× the "official" poverty threshold) at each age. We examine age-specific state structure, the remaining life expectancy, its variance, and cohort simulations for those above and below each threshold.

Experimental assemblage of novel plant-herbivore interactions: ecological host shifts after 40 million years of isolation.

Geographic isolation is the first step in insect herbivore diet specialization. Such specialization is postulated to increase insect fitness, but may simultaneously reduce insect ability to colonize novel hosts. During the Paleocene-Eocene, plants from the order Zingiberales became isolated either in the Paleotropics or in the Neotropics.

Photosynthetic rates influence the population dynamics of understory herbs in stochastic light environments.

Temporal variability in light from gaps in the tree canopy strongly influences the vital rates of understory plants. From 2012 to 2015, we estimated the size-specific vital rates of two herbs, Calathea crotalifera and Heliconia tortuosa, over a range of light environments. We estimated maximum photosynthetic capacity (A ) for a subset of individuals each year during three annual censuses, and modelled future size as a linear function of current size (a plant trait that changes ontogenetically), canopy openness (an environmental variable), and A (a potentially plastic physiological trait).

Interactions between plant size and canopy openness influence vital rates and life-history tradeoffs in two neotropical understory herbs.

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Premise Of The Study: For tropical forest understory plants, the ability to grow, survive, and reproduce is limited by the availability of light. The extent to which reproduction incurs a survival or growth cost may change with light availability, plant size, and adaptation to shade, and may vary among similar species.•

Methods: We estimated size-specific rates of growth, survival, and reproduction (vital rates), for two neotropical understory herbs (order Zingiberales) in a premontane tropical rainforest in Costa Rica.

Large size and high light do not lower the cost of reproduction for the Neotropical herb Goeppertia marantifolia.

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Premise Of The Study: Sexual reproduction is often associated with a cost in terms of reduced survival, growth, or future reproduction. It has been proposed that plant size and the environment (availability of key resources) can sometimes lower or even nullify the cost of reproduction.•

Methods: We address this issue experimentally with the Neotropical herb Goeppertia marantifolia, by manipulating sexual reproductive effort and measuring the demographic performance of plants and of their clonal offspring, in the context of natural variation in light availability.

In a long-term experimental demography study, excluding ungulates reversed invader's explosive population growth rate and restored natives.

A major goal in ecology is to understand mechanisms that increase invasion success of exotic species. A recent hypothesis implicates altered species interactions resulting from ungulate herbivore overabundance as a key cause of exotic plant domination. To test this hypothesis, we maintained an experimental demography deer exclusion study for 6 y in a forest where the native ungulate Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) is overabundant and Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is aggressively invading.

Parent-offspring conflicts, "optimal bad motherhood" and the "mother knows best" principles in insect herbivores colonizing novel host plants.

SPECIALIZATION OF INSECT HERBIVORES TO ONE OR A FEW HOST PLANTS STIMULATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO HYPOTHESES ON HOW NATURAL SELECTION SHOULD SHAPE OVIPOSITION PREFERENCES: The "mother knows best" principle suggests that females prefer to oviposit on hosts that increase offspring survival. The "optimal bad motherhood" principle predicts that females prefer to oviposit on hosts that increase their own longevity. In insects colonizing novel host plants, current theory predicts that initial preferences of insect herbivores should be maladaptive, leading to ecological traps.

Non-timber forest product harvest in variable environments: modeling the effect of harvesting as a stochastic sequence.

With increasing reports of overexploitation of wild plants for timber and non-timber forest products, there has been an increase in the number of studies investigating the effect of harvest on the dynamics of harvested populations. However, most studies have failed to account for temporal and spatial variability in the ecological conditions in which these species occur, as well as variability in the patterns of harvest intensity. In reality, local harvesters harvest at variable rather than fixed intensity over time.

Experimental demography and the vital rates of generalist and specialist insect herbivores on native and novel host plants.

1. Colonization success of species when confronted with novel environments is of interest in ecological, evolutionary and conservation contexts. Such events may represent the first step for ecological diversification.

A new way to integrate selection when both demography and selection gradients vary over time.

When both selection and demography vary over time, how can the long-run expected strength of selection on quantitative traits be measured? There are two basic steps in the proposed new analysis: one relates trait values to fitness components and the other relates fitness components to total fitness. We used one population projection matrix for each state of the environment together with a model of environmental dynamics, defining total fitness as the stochastic growth rate. We multiplied environment-specific, stage-specific mean-standardized selection gradients by environment-specific, stage-specific elasticities of the stochastic growth rate, summing over all relevant life history and environmental paths.

A time to grow and a time to die: a new way to analyze the dynamics of size, light, age, and death of tropical trees.

In tropical rain forests, rates of forest turnover and tree species' life-history differences are shaped by the life expectancy of trees and the time taken by seedlings to reach the canopy. These measures are therefore of both theoretical and applied interest. However, the relationship between size, age, and life expectancy is poorly understood.

Growth and survival across a gap-understory gradient: Contrast in performance of sexually vs. clonally produced offspring.

Sexually and clonally produced offspring may respond to environmental heterogeneity by growing and surviving at different rates. In forest understories, the availability of light ranges from low in shaded, closed canopy to high in tree-fall gaps. We experimentally investigated the growth and survival of both types of offspring in three treatments (gap centers, gap edges, and shaded understory) over 16 months.

Stage dynamics, period survival, and mortality plateaus.

Mortality plateaus at advanced ages have been found in many species, but their biological causes remain unclear. Here, we exploit age-from-stage methods for organisms with stage-structured demography to study cohort dynamics, obtaining age patterns of mortality by weighting one-period stage-specific survivals by expected age-specific stage structure. Cohort dynamics behave as a killed Markov process.

Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability.

Both means and year-to-year variances of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are predicted to change. However, the potential impact of changing climatic variability on the fate of populations has been largely unexamined. We analyzed multiyear demographic data for 36 plant and animal species with a broad range of life histories and types of environment to ask how sensitive their long-term stochastic population growth rates are likely to be to changes in the means and standard deviations of vital rates (survival, reproduction, growth) in response to changing climate.

From stage to age in variable environments: life expectancy and survivorship.

Stage-based demographic data are now available on many species of plants and some animals, and they often display temporal and spatial variability. We provide exact formulas to compute age-specific life expectancy and survivorship from stage-based data for three models of temporal variability: cycles, serially independent random variation, and a Markov chain. These models provide a comprehensive description of patterns of temporal variation.

The many growth rates and elasticities of populations in random environments.

Despite considerable interest in the dynamics of populations subject to temporally varying environments, alternate population growth rates and their sensitivities remain incompletely understood. For a Markovian environment, we compare and contrast the meanings of the stochastic growth rate (lambdaS), the growth rate of average population (lambdaM), the growth rate for average transition rates (lambdaA), and the growth rate of an aggregate represented by a megamatrix (shown here to equal lambdaM). We distinguish these growth rates by the averages that define them.

Ant-nest soil and seedling growth in a neotropical ant-dispersed herb.

A major hypothesis concerning the benefits of myrmecochory, seed dispersal by ants, to plants is that ant nests are nutrient-enriched microsites that are beneficial to seedling growth. We experimentally test this hypothesis for a neotropical myrmecochore, Calathea ovandensis, asking two questions: 1) is soil of nests of a seed-dispersing ant chemically or structurally distinct from surrounding soils, and 2) do seedlings grow better in soil collected from ant nests than in randomly collected soil? We found that although ant-nest soil was significantly enriched in nitrate-nitrogen, magnesium, iron, manganese, cadmium and percent organic matter compared to randomly collected soil, seedling growth was not significantly improved by ant-nest soil.