Solar radiation synthetic series for power purchase agreements.

The present paper proposes a methodology based on the implementation and assessment of autoregressive (AR) solar radiation models for generating synthetic series and providing guidance on bidding strategies for power purchase agreements. The work considered conventional and periodic AR models with different lag orders, assessing the models against real solar radiation measurements. The synthetic series generation process developed 1000 1-year monthly solar radiation scenarios that were later employed for simulating electric energy production and power purchase agreement models.