Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions.

Ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of management interventions in applied ecology and conservation. These models are often high-dimensional and nonlinear, yet limited data are available to calibrate or validate them. Consequently, their utility as decision-support tools is unclear.

Identifying and explaining resilience in ecological networks.

Resilient ecological systems are more likely to persist and function in the Anthropocene. Current methods for estimating an ecosystem's resilience rely on accurately parameterized ecosystem models, which is a significant empirical challenge. In this paper, we adapt tools from biochemical kinetics to identify ecological networks that exhibit 'structural resilience', a strong form of resilience that is solely a property of the network structure and is independent of model parameters.

Ultrasensitivity and bistability in covalent-modification cycles with positive autoregulation.

Switch-like behaviours in biochemical networks are of fundamental significance in biological signal processing, and exist as two distinct types: ultra-sensitivity and bistability. Here we propose two new models of a reversible covalent-modification cycle with positive autoregulation (PAR), a motif structure that is thought to be capable of both ultrasensitivity and bistability in different parameter regimes. These new models appeal to a modelling framework that we call , which accounts fully for the molecular complexities of the underlying signalling mechanisms.