Eco-Evolutionary Drivers of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Sequence Type 3 Expansion: Retrospective Machine Learning Approach.

Background: Environmentally sensitive pathogens exhibit ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change that result in the emergence and global expansion of well-adapted variants. It is imperative to understand the mechanisms that facilitate pathogen emergence and expansion, as well as the drivers behind the mechanisms, to understand and prepare for future pandemic expansions.

Objective: The unique, rapid, global expansion of a clonal complex of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (a marine bacterium causing gastroenteritis infections) named Vibrio parahaemolyticus sequence type 3 (VpST3) provides an opportunity to explore the eco-evolutionary drivers of pathogen expansion.

Identifying gene-level mechanisms of successful dispersal of during El Niño events.

El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, facilitate the movement of warm surface waters eastwards across the Pacific Ocean. Marine organisms transported by these waters can act as biological corridors for water-borne bacteria with attachment abilities. El Niño events have been hypothesized as driving the recent emergence of (Vp) variants, marine bacterium causing gastroenteritis, in South America, but the lack of a robust methodological framework limited any further exploration.

Evolutionary dynamics of the successful expansion of pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus ST3 in Latin America.

The underlying evolutionary mechanisms driving global expansions of pathogen strains are poorly understood. Vibrio parahaemolyticus is one of only two marine pathogens where variants have emerged in distinct climates globally. The success of a Vibrio parahaemolyticus clone (VpST3) in Latin America- the first spread identified outside its endemic region of tropical Asia- provided an invaluable opportunity to investigate mechanisms of VpST3 expansion into a distinct marine climate.