Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 pandemic in the context of sub-Saharan Africa: a short-term forecasting in Cameroon and Gabon.

In this paper, we propose and analyse a compartmental model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. We first formulate a comprehensive mathematical model for the dynamical transmission of COVID-19 in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. We provide the basic properties of the model and compute the basic reproduction number $\mathcal {R}_0$ when the parameter values are constant.

Short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic: a study case of Cameroon.

In this paper, an Ensemble of Kalman filter (EnKf) approach is developed to estimate unmeasurable state variables and unknown parameters in a COVID-19 model. We first formulate a mathematical model for the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 that takes into account the circulation of free coronaviruses in the environment. We provide the basic properties of the model and compute the basic reproduction number that plays an important role in the outcome of the disease.