Background: the study of the possible determinants of the rise and fall of infections can be of great relevance, as was experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the methods to understand whether determinants are simultaneous or develop through contiguity between different areas is the study of the diagnostic replication index RDt among regions.
Objectives: to introduce the analysis of RDt variability and the subsequent application of a recently introduced functional clustering method as highly useful procedures for recognizing the presence of clusters with similar trends in epidemic curves.
The present work studies the epidemic curve of COVID-19 in Italy between September 2020 and mid-June 2021 in terms of poussées, that is successive waves. There is obviously only one pandemic, although the virus has spread in the form of several variants, but the daily incidence trend can also be read in terms of overlapping of events that are different from each other or, in any case, induced by various phenomena. It can be hypothesized that in this way a succession of various waves was generated, which are modelled here using appropriate adaptation curves used in the study of epidemic data.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEpidemiol Prev
January 2021
The article compares two of the most followed indices in the monitoring of COVID-19 epidemic cases: the Rt and the RDt indices. The first was disseminated by the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS) and the second, which is more usable due to the lower difficulty of calculation and the availability of data, was adopted by various regional and local institutions.The rationale for the Rt index refers to that for the R0 index, the basic reproduction number, which is used by infectivologists as a measure of contagiousness of a given infectious agent in a completely susceptible population.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFObjectives: to produce for the national territory as a whole a deprivation index (ID) at the census section level, based on 2011 census data, in the same way as the Italian index based on the 2001 census, revising the formulation of some indicators.
Setting And Participants: the study uses the individual data of the general population and housing census of 2011. For the calculation of the index five conditions were chosen that best describe the multidimensional concept of social and material deprivation: low level of education, being unemployed, living in rent, living in crowded house, living in a single-parent family.