An early warning system to predict and mitigate wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia.

Wheat rust diseases pose one of the greatest threats to global food security, including subsistence farmers in Ethiopia. The fungal spores transmitting wheat rust are dispersed by wind and can remain infectious after dispersal over long distances. The emergence of new strains of wheat rust has exacerbated the risks of severe crop loss.

Long-term shifts in the seasonal abundance of adult biting midges and their impact on potential arbovirus outbreaks.

Surveillance of adult biting midge flight activity is used as an applied ecological method to guide the management of arbovirus incursions on livestock production in Europe and Australia.To date the impact of changes in the phenology of adult vector activity on arbovirus transmission has not been defined. We investigated this at two sites in the UK, identifying 150,000 biting midges taken from 2867 collections over a nearly 40 year timescale.

Microsatellite Analysis and Urediniospore Dispersal Simulations Support the Movement of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici from Southern Africa to Australia.

The Australian wheat stem rust (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) population was shaped by the introduction of four exotic incursions into the country.

Quantifying airborne dispersal routes of pathogens over continents to safeguard global wheat supply.

Infectious crop diseases spreading over large agricultural areas pose a threat to food security. Aggressive strains of the obligate pathogenic fungus Puccinia graminis f.sp.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Dispersal Simulations Identify Likely Airborne Incursion Routes of Wheat Stem Rust Into Ethiopia.

In recent years, severe wheat stem rust epidemics hit Ethiopia, sub-Saharan Africa's largest wheat-producing country. These were caused by race TKTTF (Digalu race) of the pathogen Puccinia graminis f. sp.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector.

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors (Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis.

Range expansion of the Bluetongue vector, Culicoides imicola, in continental France likely due to rare wind-transport events.

The role of the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola Kieffer in recent and unprecedented outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in southern Europe has been a significant point of contention. We combined entomological surveys, movement simulations of air-borne particles, and population genetics to reconstruct the chain of events that led to a newly colonized French area nestled at the northern foot of the Pyrenees. Simulating the movement of air-borne particles evidenced frequent wind-transport events allowing, within at most 36 hours, the immigration of midges from north-eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, and, as rare events, their immigration from Corsica.

Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1) Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia) in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

Andalusia (Southern Spain) is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV) into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt), defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0).

Phenotypic and Genotypic Characterization of Race TKTTF of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici that Caused a Wheat Stem Rust Epidemic in Southern Ethiopia in 2013-14.

A severe stem rust epidemic occurred in southern Ethiopia during November 2013 to January 2014, with yield losses close to 100% on the most widely grown wheat cultivar, 'Digalu'. Sixty-four stem rust samples collected from the regions were analyzed. A meteorological model for airborne spore dispersal was used to identify which regions were most likely to have been infected from postulated sites of initial infection.

The mechanical and material properties of elderly human articular cartilage subject to impact and slow loading.

The mechanical properties of articular cartilage vary enormously with loading rate, and how these properties derive from the composition and structure of the tissue is still unclear. This study investigates the mechanical properties of human articular cartilage at rapid rates of loading, compares these with measurements at slow rates of loading and explores how they relate to the gross composition of the tissue. Full-depth femoral head cartilage biopsies were subjected to a slow, unconfined compression test followed by an impact at an energy of 78.

Interactive approach by pharmacy students to educate older adults on the safe use of over-the-counter medications.

Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate a pharmacy student-led interactive educational program for older adults on the safe use of over-the-counter (OTC) medications.

Methods: This was a prospective, interventional study evaluating an educational program covering 12 common OTC topics. Doctor of pharmacy students and a geriatric specialist faculty advisor developed and delivered a 30-minute presentation tailored to older adults, accompanied by various interactive learning methods, including a question and answer session.

Seasonal migration to high latitudes results in major reproductive benefits in an insect.

Little is known of the population dynamics of long-range insect migrants, and it has been suggested that the annual journeys of billions of nonhardy insects to exploit temperate zones during summer represent a sink from which future generations seldom return (the "Pied Piper" effect). We combine data from entomological radars and ground-based light traps to show that annual migrations are highly adaptive in the noctuid moth Autographa gamma (silver Y), a major agricultural pest. We estimate that 10-240 million immigrants reach the United Kingdom each spring, but that summer breeding results in a fourfold increase in the abundance of the subsequent generation of adults, all of which emigrate southward in the fall.

Investigating incursions of bluetongue virus using a model of long-distance Culicoides biting midge dispersal.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an economically important pathogen of ruminants that is the aetiological agent of the haemorrhagic disease bluetongue. Bluetongue virus is biologically transmitted by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), and long-range dispersal of infected vector species contributes substantially to the rapid spread of the virus. The range of semi-passive flights of infected Culicoides on prevailing winds has been inferred to reach several hundred kilometres in a single night over water bodies.

Comparison of pre-emptive and reactive strategies to control an incursion of bluetongue virus serotype 1 to Great Britain by vaccination.

Bluetongue (BT) is a disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV), which is spread between its hosts by Culicoides midges. Vaccination is the most effective way to protect susceptible animals against BTV and was used reactively to control the recent northern European outbreak. To assess the consequences of using vaccination pre-emptively we used a stochastic, spatially explicit model to compare reactive and pre-emptive vaccination strategies against an incursion of BTV serotype 1 (BTV-1) into Great Britain.

A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe.

The 2006 bluetongue (BT) outbreak in northwestern Europe had devastating effects on cattle and sheep in that intensively farmed area. The role of wind in disease spread, through its effect on Culicoides dispersal, is still uncertain, and remains unquantified. We examine here the relationship between farm-level infection dates and wind speed and direction within the framework of a novel model involving both mechanistic and stochastic steps.

Atmospheric dispersion models and their use in the assessment of disease transmission.

Atmospheric dispersion models can be used to assess the likely airborne spread of both plant and animal diseases. These models, often initially developed for other purposes, can be adapted and used to study past outbreaks of disease as well as operationally to provide advice to those responsible for containing or eradicating disease in the event of a specific emergency. The models can be run over short periods of time where emissions and infection periods can be accurately determined or in situations requiring a statistical approach perhaps covering many weeks or even months.

Reanalysis of the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic to calculate airborne transmission probabilities.

The aims of this study were to statistically reassess the likelihood that windborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) occurred at the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 FMD epidemic at Oswestry, Shropshire, and to derive dose-response probability of infection curves for farms exposed to airborne FMDV. To enable this, data on all farms present in 1967 in the parishes near Oswestry were assembled. Cases were infected premises whose date of appearance of first clinical signs was within 14 days of the depopulation of the index farm.

Assessing the consequences of an incursion of a vector-borne disease I. Identifying feasible incursion scenarios for bluetongue in Scotland.

Following the arrival of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in southeast England in September 2007, the Scottish Government commissioned research to assess the economic consequences of a BTV-8 incursion to Scotland. Here we present the first component of the assessment, which entailed identifying feasible incursion scenarios for the virus. Our analyses focused on three routes of introduction: wind-borne dispersal of infected vectors, import of infected animals and northwards spread of BTV from affected areas in GB.

Possible means of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) to Sweden in August 2008: comparison of results from two models for atmospheric transport of the Culicoides vector.

In September 2008, bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) infection was detected for the first time in Sweden, in a dairy herd on the west coast. Two different previously published operational atmospheric dispersion models indicate that midges from infected regions in Europe are likely to have reached Sweden by atmospheric transport during an estimated infection window. Both models indicated that the likely dates for the incursion of midges were overnight on August 6 to 7 and August 14 to 15; however, the less constrained model indicated a number of additional possible dates.

Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens/ chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. We assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems in the UK and discuss the effects on health impacts, using expert input and literature on climate change; health effects from exposure to pathogens/chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals/pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the evidence base for health effects of chemicals/pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical/pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of various contaminants.

[Comorbidity in infertile couples].

Pregnancy is the result of a series of highly complex processes, which can be deranged by multiple disturbances on many different levels. Physicians are increasingly dealing with couples suffering from infertility. This rise in case numbers is mainly due to the fact that couples are more and more delaying childbearing until a later phase of their reproductive life, when their social and professional careers are established.

Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

Objective: Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts.

Why were there no outbreaks of bluetongue in the UK during 2008?

With bluetongue rampant on the main European Continent in 2008, why were there no outbreaks reported in the UK? The essential criteria for introduction of the disease by carriage of infected midges on the wind have been assessed for 2006, 2007 and 2008, and it is concluded that temperatures were favourable for virus replication and midge activity and that suitable winds were present on a considerable number of occasions. A major difference between 2007, when virus was introduced to the UK, and 2008 was the extensive vaccination programme implemented by the UK Government in 2008, with the support of the farming community. Vaccination reduced the numbers of susceptible animals, making it difficult for a focus of disease to become established.

Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease--model intercomparison.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008.