The Impact of Changes in Population Health and Mortality on Future Prevalence of Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias in the United States.

Objectives: We assessed potential benefits for older Americans of reducing risk factors associated with dementia.

Methods: A dynamic simulation model tracked a national cohort of persons 51 and 52 years of age to project dementia onset and mortality in risk reduction scenarios for diabetes, hypertension, and dementia.

Results: We found reducing incidence of diabetes by 50% did not reduce number of years a person ages 51 or 52 lived with dementia and increased the population ages 65 and older in 2040 with dementia by about 115,000.