Cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing at routine gatherings to minimize community-level infections in lower-middle income countries: A mathematical modeling study.

Places of worship serve as a venue for both mass and routine gathering around the world, and therefore are associated with risk of large-scale SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, such routine gatherings also offer an opportunity to distribute self-tests to members of the community to potentially help mitigate transmission and reduce broader community spread of SARS-CoV-2. Over the past four years, self-testing strategies have been an impactful tool for countries' response to the COVID-19 pandemic, especially early on to mitigate the spread when vaccination and treatment options were limited.

Trade-offs between clinical performance and test accessibility in tuberculosis diagnosis: a multi-country modelling approach for target product profile development.

Background: Tuberculosis continues to be a leading cause of infectious disease mortality, and effective screening and diagnosis remains crucial. Despite progress made, diagnostic gaps remain due to poor access to diagnostic tools and testing, particularly in rural and remote areas. As such, the development of target product profiles is essential in guiding the development of new diagnostic tools, however target product profiles often lack evidence-based information and do not consider trade-offs between test accuracy and accessibility.

Men's Satisfaction with General Health Services is Associated with Future Use of HIV Testing in Malawi: A Community-Representative Survey.

Across sub-Saharan Africa, men are less likely to know their HIV status than women, leading to later treatment initiation. Little is known about how experiences with general health services affect men's use of HIV testing. We used data from a 2019 community-representative survey of men in Malawi to understand frequency and cause of men's negative health service experiences (defined as men reporting they "would not recommend" a facility) and their association with future HIV testing.

Implementation research: a protocol for two three-arm pragmatic randomised controlled trials on continuous glucose monitoring devices in people with type 1 diabetes in South Africa and Kenya.

Background: Self-monitoring of glucose is an essential component of type 1 diabetes (T1D) management. In recent years, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) has provided an alternative to daily fingerstick testing for the optimisation of insulin dosing and general glucose management in people with T1D. While studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact of CGM on clinical outcomes in the US, Europe and Australia, there are limited data available for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and further empirical evidence is needed to inform policy decision around their use in these countries.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies in schools: a multicountry modelling analysis.

Objectives: To determine the most epidemiologically effective and cost-effective school-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) self-testing strategies among teachers and students.

Design: Mathematical modelling and economic evaluation.

Setting And Participants: Simulated school and community populations were parameterised to Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, with SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies targeted to teachers and students in primary and secondary schools under varying epidemic conditions.

Cost-effectiveness of intervention combinations towards the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV in limited-resource settings: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: Since 2000, there has been a substantial global reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV. Despite effective interventions, gaps still remain in progress towards elimination in many low-income and middle-income countries. We developed a mathematical model to determine the most cost-effective combinations of interventions to prevent vertical transmission.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons.

Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs.

Oral antivirals have the potential to reduce the public health burden of COVID-19. However, now that we have exited the emergency-phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, declining SARS-CoV-2 clinical testing rates (average testing rates = [Formula: see text]10 tests/100,000 people/day in low-and-middle income countries; <100 tests/100,000 people/day in high-income countries; September 2023) make the development of effective test-and-treat programs challenging. We used an agent-based model to investigate how testing rates and strategies affect the use and effectiveness of oral antiviral test-to-treat programs in four country archetypes of different income levels and demographies.

Provider-led community antiretroviral therapy distribution in Malawi: Retrospective cohort study of retention, viral load suppression and costs.

Background: Outcomes of community antiretroviral therapy (ART) distribution (CAD), in which provider-led ART teams deliver integrated HIV services at health posts in communities, have been mixed in sub-Saharan African countries. CAD outcomes and costs relative to facility-based care have not been reported from Malawi.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study in two Malawian districts (Lilongwe and Chikwawa districts), comparing CAD with facility-based ART care.

Effect of index HIV self-testing for sexual partners of clients enrolled in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in Malawi: A randomized controlled trial.

Background: HIV testing among the sexual partners of HIV-positive clients is critical for case identification and reduced transmission in southern and eastern Africa. HIV self-testing (HIVST) may improve uptake of HIV services among sexual partners of antiretroviral therapy (ART) clients, but the impact of HIVST on partner testing and subsequent ART initiation remains unclear.

Methods And Findings: We conducted an individually randomized, unblinded trial to assess if an index HIVST intervention targeting the partners of ART clients improves uptake of testing and treatment services in Malawi.

A modelling framework for translating discrete choice experiment results into cost-effectiveness estimates: an application to designing tailored and scalable HIV and contraceptive services for adolescents in Gauteng, South Africa.

Introduction: South African youth and adolescents face a high burden of (Sexually Transmitted Infections) STIs, HIV and unintended pregnancies, but uptake of services remains low. To address this, tailored and scalable interventions are urgently needed. We developed a framework to fill the gap and translate the impact of facility-level attributes into a cost-effectiveness analysis for increasing HIV/contraceptive service uptake in adolescents using a discrete choice experiment (DCE).

Identifying efficient linkage strategies for men (IDEaL): a study protocol for an individually randomised control trial.

Introduction: Men in sub-Saharan Africa are less likely than women to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) and more likely to have longer cycles of disengagement from ART programmes. Treatment interventions that meet the unique needs of men are needed, but they must be scalable. We will test the impact of various interventions on 6-month retention in ART programmes among men living with HIV who are not currently engaged in care (never initiated ART and ART clients with treatment interruption).

Health Outcomes and Cost-effectiveness of Monoclonal SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies as Pre-exposure Prophylaxis.

Importance: Pre-exposure prophylaxis with neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs PrEP) prevents infection and reduces hospitalizations and the duration thereof for COVID-19 and death among high-risk individuals. However, reduced effectiveness due to a changing SARS-CoV-2 viral landscape and high drug prices remain substantial implementation barriers.

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of mAbs PrEP as COVID-19 PrEP.

The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting.

Background: The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead.

Methods: Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions.

Achieving HIV Epidemic Control and Improving Maternal Healthcare Services with Community-Based HIV Service Delivery in Zambia: Mixed-Methods Assessment of the SMACHT Project.

Novel community-based approaches are needed to achieve and sustain HIV epidemic control in Zambia. Under the Stop Mother and Child HIV Transmission (SMACHT) project, the Community HIV Epidemic Control (CHEC) differentiated service delivery model used community health workers to support HIV testing, ART linkage, viral suppression, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). A multi-methods assessment included programmatic data analysis from April 2015 to September 2020, and qualitative interviews from February to March 2020.

Differential in-hospital mortality and intensive care treatment over time: Informing hospital pathways for modelling COVID-19 in South Africa.

There are limited published data within sub-Saharan Africa describing hospital pathways of COVID-19 patients hospitalized. These data are crucial for the parameterisation of epidemiological and cost models, and for planning purposes for the region. We evaluated COVID-19 hospital admissions from the South African national hospital surveillance system (DATCOV) during the first three COVID-19 waves between May 2020 and August 2021.

Addressing the Need for a Preexposure Prophylaxis Monitoring and Evaluation Implementation Guide: Experience From Zambia.

Background: The HIV care continuum comprises well-defined steps and indicators. In contrast, indicators along the preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) cascade are still in the early stages of implementation. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of PrEP services is critical to optimizing PrEP uptake and adherence during periods of HIV risk.

The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa.

In March 2020 the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium was formed to support government planning for COVID-19 cases and related healthcare. Models were developed jointly by local disease modelling groups to estimate cases, resource needs and deaths due to COVID-19. The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM) while initially developed as a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-Cov-2 transmission in the nine provinces of South Africa, was adapted several times over the course of the first wave of infection in response to emerging local data and changing needs of government.

Economic evaluation of a cluster randomized, non-inferiority trial of differentiated service delivery models of HIV treatment in Zimbabwe.

About 85% of Zimbabwe's >1.4 million people living with HIV are on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Further expansion of its treatment program will require more efficient use of existing resources.

The early-stage comprehensive costs of routine PrEP implementation and scale-up in Zambia.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention option, but cost-effectiveness is sensitive to implementation and program costs. Studies indicate that, in addition to direct delivery cost, PrEP provision requires substantial demand creation and client support to encourage PrEP initiation and persistence. We estimated the cost of providing PrEP in Zambia through different PrEP delivery models.