Interoperability of statistical models in pandemic preparedness: principles and reality.

We present as a guiding framework for statistical modelling to assist policy makers asking multiple questions using diverse datasets in the face of an evolving pandemic response. Interoperability provides an important set of principles for future pandemic preparedness, through the joint design and deployment of adaptable systems of statistical models for disease surveillance using probabilistic reasoning. We illustrate this through case studies for inferring and characterising spatial-temporal prevalence and reproduction numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England.

Bayesian imputation of COVID-19 positive test counts for nowcasting under reporting lag.

Obtaining up to date information on the number of UK COVID-19 regional infections is hampered by the reporting lag in positive test results for people with COVID-19 symptoms. In the UK, for 'Pillar 2' swab tests for those showing symptoms, it can take up to five days for results to be collated. We make use of the stability of the under reporting process over time to motivate a statistical temporal model that infers the final total count given the partial count information as it arrives.

The epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 app.

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen the emergence of digital contact tracing to help to prevent the spread of the disease. A mobile phone app records proximity events between app users, and when a user tests positive for COVID-19, their recent contacts can be notified instantly. Theoretical evidence has supported this new public health intervention, but its epidemiological impact has remained uncertain.

Epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight after the launch of the NHS Test and Trace programme: a preliminary analysis.

Background: In May 2020, the UK National Health Service (NHS) Test and Trace programme was launched in England in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The programme was first rolled out on the Isle of Wight and included version 1 of the NHS contact tracing app. The aim of the study was to make a preliminary assessment of the epidemiological impact of the Test and Trace programme using publicly available data.

Medium-term performance and maintenance of SUDS: a case-study of Hopwood Park Motorway Service Area, UK.

One of the main barriers to implementing SUDS is concern about performance and maintenance costs since there are few well-documented case-studies. This paper summarizes studies conducted between 2000 and 2008 of the performance and maintenance of four SUDS management trains constructed in 1999 at the Hopwood Park Motorway Service Area, central England. Assessments were made of the wildlife value and sedimentation in the SUDS ponds, the hydraulic performance of the coach park management train, water quality in all management trains, and soil/sediment composition in the grass filter strip, interceptor and ponds.

Can biosensors help to protect drinking water?

A large proportion of drinking water is abstracted for treatment from lowland rivers--about 30% in the UK--and this water is at particular risk from sudden and poisonous industrial or agricultural pollution. To cover the range of potential pollutants it may be possible to use biosensors as broadband monitors for toxins. The underlying assumption is that some biological processes, when challenged with a toxin, will be affected in a way analogous to that of man, and that therefore on-line scrutiny of such processes will provide early warning of substances liable to be detrimental to human health.