Publications by authors named "Bray F"

There are considerable geographic, ethnic and temporal variations in the global incidence of testicular cancer. The disease mainly affects Western populations, with average rates in developed areas of the world six times higher than those in developing areas. About 500,000 new cases were diagnosed worldwide in 2002, with the vast majority being germ cell tumors and occurring in young adult males.

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On the basis of current evidence regarding human papillomavirus (HPV) and cancer, this chapter provides estimates of the global burden of HPV-related cancers, and the proportion that are actually "caused" by infection with HPV types, and therefore potentially preventable. We also present trends in incidence and mortality of these cancers in the past, and consider their likely future evolution.

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The incidence of the two main clinical subentities of testicular germ cell cancer (seminoma and nonseminoma) is increasing throughout Europe. Most studies have revealed little variation in risk factors between the two subtypes. This study compared generation-specific trends in eight European countries, hypothesizing that similar temporal pattern by birth cohort implied that seminoma and nonseminoma had a largely comparable etiology.

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This study profiles testicular cancer incidence and mortality across Europe, and the effects of age, period and generational influences, using age-period-cohort modeling. Despite a 5-fold variation in incidence rates, there were consistent mean increases in incidence in each of the 12 European countries studied, ranging from around 6% per annum (Spain and Slovenia) to 1-2% (Norway). In contrast, declines in testicular cancer mortality of 3-6% per annum were observed in the 1980s and 1990s for the majority of the 22 countries studied, particularly in Northern and Western Europe.

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As observations in the past do not necessarily hold into the future, predicting future cancer occurrence is fraught with uncertainty. Nevertheless, predictions can aid health planners in allocating resources and allow scientists to explore the consequence of interventions aimed at reducing the impact of cancer. Simple statistical models have been refined over the past few decades and often provide reasonable predictions when applied to recent trends.

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Rapid increases in cervical adenocarcinoma incidence have been observed in Western countries in recent decades. Postulated explanations include an increasing specificity of subtype-the capability to diagnose the disease, an inability of cytologic screening to reduce adenocarcinoma, and heterogeneity in cofactors related to persistent human papillomavirus infection. This study examines the possible contribution of these factors in relation with trends observed in Europe.

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Lung cancer rates have peaked among men in many areas of the world, but rates among women continue to rise. Most lung cancers are squamous cell carcinoma, small cell carcinoma, or adenocarcinoma; trends vary according to type. We compiled population-based morphology-specific incidence data from registries contributing to the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) databases.

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More than one in 20 female cancers in Europe are of the endometrium. Surveillance of incidence rates is imperative given the rapidly changing profile in the prevalence and distribution of the underlying determinants. This study presents an analysis of observed and age-period-cohort-modeled trends in 13 European countries.

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Corpus uteri cancer is the fourth most common neoplasm in women in Europe and the tenth most common cause of cancer death. We examined geographic and temporal variations in corpus uteri cancer incidence and mortality rates in the age groups 25-49 and 50-74 in 22 European countries. The disease is considerably less common in premenopausal women, with incidence and mortality rates decreasing throughout Europe and mortality declines more marked in western and southern European countries.

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Despite there being sufficient evidence for the effectiveness of screening by cytology in preventing cancer of the cervix uteri, screening policies vary widely among European countries, and incidence is increasing in younger women. This study analyzes trends in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix uteri in 13 European countries to evaluate effectiveness of screening against a background of changing risk. Age-period-cohort models were fitted and period and cohort effects were estimated; these were considered as primarily indicative of screening interventions and changing etiology, respectively.

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Estimates of the worldwide incidence, mortality and prevalence of 26 cancers in the year 2002 are now available in the GLOBOCAN series of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The results are presented here in summary form, including the geographic variation between 20 large "areas" of the world. Overall, there were 10.

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Analysing time trends in mortality from cancers of the cervix and corpus uteri using routine data sources (such as the World Health Organisation mortality database) involves two major problems: deaths certified as "uterus, unspecified site", and the presence of a combined category comprising unspecified and corpus uteri cancer deaths. To avoid misleading interpretations, the unspecified and the misclassified data must be incorporated into the analysis to produce rates that allow meaningful comparisons between populations and over time. Reallocation methods based on age- and time-specific distributions of cervix and corpus uteri cancer are applied to the unspecified deaths, while for those in the combined category, the age- and time-specific distributions of unspecified and corpus uteri cancer are considered.

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One in ten of all new cancers diagnosed worldwide each year is a cancer of the female breast, and it is the most common cancer in women in both developing and developed areas. It is also the principal cause of death from cancer among women globally. We review the descriptive epidemiology of the disease, focusing on some of the key elements of the geographical and temporal variations in incidence and mortality in each world region.

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We have considered trends in incidence and mortality in 28 European countries using incidence data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and mortality from the WHO database. Countries with the highest rates in the early 1960s included the Nordic countries, Austria, Germany and the United Kingdom, but trends in these areas have tended to decline over recent calendar periods, particularly with regard to mortality. Southern European countries showed upward trends, at least until the early 1980s for France and Italy.

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Cutaneous malignant melanoma has been characterized by rapid and steady increases in incidence and mortality in white populations. Some reports mentioned declining trends in the mean thickness of these tumours, but other studies suggested a stable incidence of thick melanomas. The aim of this study was to describe the stage distribution of melanomas across Europe, with particular reference to temporal trends.

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Background: As a result of a major social and demographic transition, Colombia is currently undergoing major changes in disease-specific mortality rates, including an increasing burden of cancer death. The current article described some aspects of the evolution of cancer mortality in Colombia and, in particular, highlighted the trends for the most common causes of cancer death in Colombia.

Methods: Cancer deaths registered in the national mortality database from 1981-1996 were used to obtain age-standardized mortality rates by gender and site using the world standard population.

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A questionnaire survey was conducted by the Epidemiology Working Group of the European Cervical Cancer Screening Network, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer, IARC, between August and December 2003 in 35 centres in 20 European countries with reliable cervical cancer incidence and/or mortality data in databanks held at IARC and WHO. The questionnaire was completed by 28 centres from 20 countries. The final tables included information on 25 centres from 18 countries.

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There are no national-level data on cancer mortality in China since two surveys in 1973-1975 and 1990-1992 (a 10% sample), but ongoing surveillance systems, based on nonrandom selected populations, give an indication as to the trends for major cancers. Based on a log-linear regression model with Poisson errors, the annual rates of change for 10 cancers and all other cancers combined, by age, sex and urban/rural residence were estimated from the data of the surveillance system of the Center for Health Information and Statistics, covering about 10% of the national population. These rates of change were applied to the survey data of 1990-1992 to estimate national mortality in the year 2000, and to make projections for 2005.

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Significant changes in the prevalence of tobacco smoking have been observed in many European countries. EU candidate countries have also experienced major changes with respect to tobacco smoking, which have resulted in changes in the frequency of lung cancer. In men in the majority of these countries, a reduction of mortality rates has been observed recently, while in Hungary and Poland a deceleration of mortality increase was observed in the 1990s.

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The relative importance of cancer of the cervix among several important causes of mortality (from cancer and other diseases) has been evaluated by estimating the years of life lost (YLL) by young and middle-aged women (25-64 years old) in different regions of the world. The life years were weighted to reflect their importance to the individual and to society. On a global basis, cancer of the cervix is responsible for about 2% of the total (weighted) YLL, fewer than for other causes of mortality in this age group.

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Lung cancer, the most common cause of cancer death in the European Union (EU), continues to have an enormous impact on the health experience of the men and women living in the constituent countries. Information on the course of the lung cancer epidemic is essential in order to formulate an effective cancer control policy. This paper examines recent trends in lung cancer mortality rates in men and women in each of the 15 countries, comparing cross-sectional rates of death in younger (aged 30-64 years) and older populations (aged 65 years or over), and the age, period of death, and birth cohort influences in the younger age group.

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Objective: To summarize the geographical and temporal variations in incidence of pleural mesothelioma in Europe, using the extensive data available from European general cancer registries, and consider these in light of recent trends in asbestos extraction, use and import in European countries.

Material And Methods: The data were extracted from the European Cancer Incidence and Mortality database (EUROCIM). The inclusion criteria was acceptance in Volume VII of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

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In this paper, we present estimates of national cancer incidence in Portugal in 1996-1998, predictions for the year 2000, and interpret the recent cancer mortality trends in light of observations from epidemiological research and risk factor patterns. In Portugal, national mortality data from vital statistics are available from 1960, while cancer registration has been mandatory since 1988, when three regional cancer registries covering the mainland of the Portuguese Republic were set up. Up until now, however, none of these registries has been able to produce data with an acceptable completeness of registration--hence this study.

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Background: There continue to be major public health challenges arising from the increasing cancer burden in Europe. Drawing upon expertise from other European centres and networks, the Comprehensive Cancer Monitoring Programme in Europe project (CaMon) provides a central information resource of the cancer profile in European populations.

Methods: The cancer indicators fundamental to disease monitoring in Europe are illustrated in terms of definitions and availability.

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