Exploring the value in variations of the Relative Income Price (RIP) for calculating cigarette affordability: An illustration using Malaysia.

The relationships between cigarette affordability, consumer income levels and distribution, and tax increases are complex and underexplored. This study investigates different ways of calculating the Relative Income Price (RIP) measure of affordability using Malaysia as a case study. We calculate cigarette affordability in Malaysia between 2009-2019 using government data, and multiple RIP variants.

Tobacco Taxation in Spain: A Tax Laggard With a Brighter Possible Future.

Introduction: In recent years tobacco taxation in Spain has regressed, with its Tobacconomics tax scorecard falling from 3.9 points (out of 5) in 2014, to only 2.625 in 2020.

Improving estimates of the illicit cigarette trade through collaboration: lessons from two studies of Malaysia.

This paper critically analyses contrasting estimates of Malaysia's illicit cigarette trade in 2011, 2015 and 2019 by Bui and Koya who previously produced independent estimates at about the same time using tax gap analysis. Collaboration between the two authors' teams emerged due to the discrepancies in their results, generating this paper to explore the methodological issues identified and hence produce revised estimates of the rate of illicit. Key issues identified were: Bui 's assessment of legally imported cigarettes impacting all years; their exclusion of ad valorem duty affecting the 2011 and 2015 estimates; Koya overlooked the value of cigarettes for export market in their ad valorem calculation and used the sales value of imported tobacco/tobacco products, not just cigarettes, both of which impact estimates for 2011 and 2015.

How has the tobacco industry passed tax changes through to consumers in 12 sub-Saharan African countries?

Introduction: Tobacco taxation is only effective in reducing consumption when it is translated into higher prices. This study aims to investigate to what extent the tobacco industry (TI) passes tax increases over to consumers by increasing the retail price of cigarettes in 12 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries.

Methods: African Cigarette Prices Project and WHO's Global Tobacco Epidemic Reports data were used to calculate the rate of tax pass-through by decomposing the retail price of cigarettes into tax and net prices between 2016 and 2020.

The Lebanese Regie state-owned tobacco monopoly: lessons to inform monopoly-focused endgame strategies.

Background: Many countries have started pursuing tobacco 'endgame' goals of creating a 'tobacco-free' country by a certain date. Researchers have presented models to attain this goal, including shifting the supply of tobacco to a monopoly-oriented endgame model (MOEM), wherein a state-owned entity controls the supply and distribution of tobacco products. Although not designed to end tobacco use, the Regie in Lebanon exhibits some of the key features identified in MOEM and hence can serve as a practical example from which to draw lessons.

Going 'Super Value' in New Zealand: cigarette pricing strategies during a period of sustained annual excise tax increases.

Background: Between 2010 and 2020, the New Zealand (NZ) Government increased tobacco excise tax by inflation plus 10% each year. We reviewed market structure changes and examined whether NZ tobacco companies shifted excise tax increases to maintain the affordability of lower priced cigarette brands.

Methods: We cluster-analysed market data that tobacco companies supply to the NZ Ministry of Health, created four price partitions and examined the size and share of these over time.

Tobacco industry pricing strategies for single cigarettes and multistick packs after excise tax increases in Colombia.

Introduction: Taxes on tobacco products are an efficient way of reducing consumption. However, they are only effective if passed on to consumers with higher prices. This study aims to examine tobacco industry (TI) pricing strategies in response to tax increases, and whether they differ by price segments or presentation (packs or individual sticks) in Colombia.

Where to next for countries with high tobacco taxes? The potential for greater control of tobacco pricing through licensing regulation.

Optimising the taxation of tobacco products should be among the highest priorities for health and hence economic policy in every country. The WHO Technical Manual on Tobacco Tax Policy and Administration released in April 2021 provides invaluable advice, including 26 best practice recommendations on policy design, administrative efficiency and addressing industry tactics to circumvent tobacco tax increases. Introducing and increasing tobacco taxes is the most important tobacco control measure for any jurisdiction.

Corporate communication of the relative health risks of IQOS through a webchat service.

Background: Communication of the relative health risks of IQOS can attract potential consumers, aiding its commercial success. However, health-related claims need to be used cautiously to avoid inaccuracies and attracting non-smokers. We used the live webchat service on the IQOS website to identify information and claims on the relative risks of IQOS made directly to potential consumers in different countries.

Promoting convergence and closing gaps using affordability-based minimum taxes: an illustration using the European Union Tobacco Tax Directive.

Background: The rules governing tobacco taxation in the European Union (EU) are currently under revision. Earlier research has proposed reforms aimed at stimulating price convergence across countries by linking national minimum taxes to a measure of average prices across the EU. This paper proposes that revised tax rules include an affordability criterion whereby minimum taxes are required to be no less than a common prespecified fraction of domestic average disposable income.

Tobacco industry pricing strategies in response to excise tax policies: a systematic review.

Objective: To explore what is known about the tobacco industry's (TI) price-based responses to tobacco excise tax policies and whether these vary by country income group using a systematic review.

Data Sources: Studies assessing TI pricing tactics were identified via searches of five online databases using a combination of search keywords.

Study Selection: Inclusion criteria were applied by two reviewers independently who screened all search results (titles and abstracts) for possible inclusion.

Promoting convergence and closing gaps: a blueprint for the revision of the European Union Tobacco Tax Directive.

Background And Aims: Despite the European Union (EU) Tobacco Tax Directive (TTD), a lack of convergence in EU tobacco prices promotes high levels of cross-border shopping and down-trading from factory-made (FM) to roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) cigarettes. This study presents a blueprint for reform, whereby minimum taxes are related to the overall price level in the EU and where taxation of RYO is related to that of FM.

Methods: Longitudinal data on prices and taxes on FM and RYO in 25 member states over 2011-2019 are used to estimate econometric models for their weighted average prices as a function of taxes.

What does Brexit mean for UK tobacco control?

In January 2020 the UK left the European Union (EU), although a transition period extends EU rules/regulations until the end of 2020 while a longer-term relationship agreement is negotiated. After almost 50 years of membership the UK economy is tightly integrated into that of the EU single market, and many UK laws and regulations have their origins in the EU, including those concerning tobacco. This paper provides an overview of potential implications of Brexit for UK tobacco control.

Longitudinal evaluation of the impact of standardised packaging and minimum excise tax on tobacco sales and industry revenue in the UK.

Background: Standardised packaging for factory-made cigarettes (FM) and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO), and a minimum excise tax (MET) were fully implemented in the UK in May 2017 following a 12-month transition period. This paper is the first to examine effects on tobacco sales volumes and company revenues.

Methods: Analysis of UK commercial supermarket and convenience store electronic point of sale data on tobacco sales.

Standardised packaging, minimum excise tax, and RYO focussed tax rise implications for UK tobacco pricing.

Background: Standardised packaging for factory made (FM) and roll your own (RYO) tobacco was fully implemented in the UK in May 2017. Around the same time, several changes to the tax system were applied (a Minimum Excise Tax (MET) for FM products and tax increases weighted towards RYO products). The tobacco industry claims that standardised packaging will lower prices (a disincentive for quitting) by commoditising the product, yet had itself taken advantage of the previous tax regime to achieve large profits from premium brands while also keeping some products' prices relatively low.

UK tobacco price increases: driven by industry or public health?

Background: Tobacco companies claim that higher taxes will force smokers into buying illicit tobacco, but if they were truly concerned about increasing illicit sales with higher prices they would only increase retail prices in line with changes in taxation. In this paper, we explore UK pricing of both factory-made cigarettes (FM) and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) to explore the extent to which price increases were due to government tax rises or industry strategies to increase profit per pack.

Method: Nielsen commercial data on UK tobacco sales data (2010-2015) were combined with official UK data on inflation and tax rates, to identify the source of real price increases.

Exploiting a low tax system: non-tax-induced cigarette price increases in Taiwan 2011-2016.

Introduction: This study aims to analyse the non-tax-induced price increasing strategies adopted by tobacco industry in Taiwan, a high-income country with comprehensive tobacco control policies but low tobacco taxes and a declining cigarette market.

Methods: Using governmental tax, price and inflation data, we analysed cigarette sales volume, affordability, affordability elasticity of demand, market share, pricing and net revenue of the top five tobacco companies in Taiwan from 2011 to 2016 when no tax increases occurred.

Results: Total revenue after tax grew significantly for all the major transnational tobacco companies between 2011 and 2016 at the expense of the state-owned Taiwan Tobacco and Liquor Corporation.

The failure of the UK to tax adequately tobacco company profits.

Background: A key driver of the global tobacco epidemic is the massive profit earned from manufacturing tobacco products despite high levels of product taxation. Two of the four major Transnational Tobacco companies are based in the UK, where there is growing evidence of corporate tax avoidance by transnational firms and where there are calls for the industry to pay more towards the harms caused by tobacco products.

Objectives/methods: UK tobacco company profit and corporation tax data between 2009 and 2016 is obtained from publically available sources.

Keeping smoking affordable in higher tax environments via smoking thinner roll-your-own cigarettes: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey 2006-15.

Background: Roll-Your-Own tobacco (RYO) use is increasingly popular in many countries: it is generally cheaper than factory-made cigarettes (FM), and smokers can further reduce costs by adjusting the amount of tobacco in each cigarette. However, the level of risk of RYO compared with FM cigarettes is similar and does not meaningfully change with cigarette weight. We assessed the weight of tobacco in RYO cigarettes across jurisdictions with differing tobacco taxes/prices and over time.