Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system.

Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Evaluating the effectiveness of M-AMBI with other biotic indexes in a temperate estuary.

Need for a scalable and widely applicable index has been increasingly important. This study evaluates the applicability of the M-AMBI, a potential comprehensive index, at small spatial scales. M-AMBI was compared to regional indices (EMAP-E and GOM B-IBI), assessing response to natural environmental gradients and low oxygen stress.

Measuring and modeling diel oxygen dynamics in a shallow hypereutrophic estuary: Implications of low oxygen exposure on aquatic life.

Hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen (DO) is a common outcome of excess nitrogen and phosphorus delivered to coastal waterbodies. Shallow and highly productive estuaries are particularly susceptible to diel-cycling hypoxia, which can exhibit DO excursions between anoxia (DO ≤1 mg L) and supersaturated concentrations within a day. Shallow estuaries exhibiting diel-cycling hypoxia are understudied relative to larger and deeper estuaries, with very few mechanistic models that can predict diel oxygen dynamics.

Effects of Biophysical Processes on Diel-Cycling Hypoxia in a Subtropical Estuary.

In shallow estuaries, fluctuations in bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) at diel (24 h) timescales are commonly attributed to cycles of net production and respiration. However, bottom DO can also be modulated by physical processes, such as tides and wind, that vary at or near diel timescales. Here, we examine processes affecting spatiotemporal variations in diel-cycling DO in Escambia Bay, a shallow estuary along the Gulf of Mexico.

Inter-model comparison of simulated Gulf of Mexico hypoxia in response to reduced nutrient loads: effects of phytoplankton and organic matter parameterization.

Complex simulation models are a valuable tool to inform nutrient management decisions aimed at reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico, yet simulated hypoxia response to reduced nutrients varies greatly between models. We compared two biogeochemical models driven by the same hydrodynamics, the Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) and Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM), to investigate how they differ in simulating hypoxia and their response to reduced nutrients. Different phytoplankton nutrient kinetics produced 2-3 times more hypoxic area and volume on the western shelf in CGEM compared to GoMDOM.

Contiguous Low Oxygen Waters between the Continental Shelf Hypoxia Zone and Nearshore Coastal Waters of Louisiana, USA: Interpreting 30 Years of Profiling Data and Three-Dimensional Ecosystem Modeling.

The multidecadal expansion of northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf hypoxia is a striking example of the adverse effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment on coastal oceans. Increased nutrient inputs and widespread shelf hypoxia have resulted in numerous dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality problems in nearshore coastal waters of Louisiana. A large hydrographic dataset compiled from research programs spanning 30 years and the three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model CGEM (Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model) were integrated to explore the interconnections of low DO waters across the continental shelf to nearshore coastal waters of Louisiana.

Modeling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ecosystem Metabolism and Organic Carbon Dynamics Affecting Hypoxia on the Louisiana Continental Shelf.

The hypoxic zone on the Louisiana Continental Shelf (LCS) forms each summer due to nutrient enhanced primary production and seasonal stratification associated with freshwater discharges from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). Recent field studies have identified highly productive shallow nearshore waters as an important component of shelf-wide carbon production contributing to hypoxia formation. In this study we present results from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model named CGEM (Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model) applied to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of hypoxia, carbon production, respiration, and transport between nearshore and middle shelf regions where hypoxia is most prevalent.

Spatially Variable Bioturbation and Physical Mixing Drive the Sedimentary Biogeochemical Seascape in the Louisiana Continental Shelf Hypoxic Zone.

Seasonal hypoxia on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) has grown to over 22,000 km with limited information available on how low oxygen effects the benthos. Benthic macrofaunal colonization and sediment biogeochemical parameters were characterized at twelve stations in waters 10 - 50 m deep along four transects spanning 320 km across the LCS hypoxic zone in the early fall of 2010 when bottom waters typically return to oxic conditions. Chemical data and sediment profile imaging (SPI) support three primary mechanistic pathways of organic matter degradation on the LCS: (i) metal oxide cycling in depositional muds, (ii) infauna-driven bioturbation delivering oxygen below the sediment-water interface, and (iii) sulfate reduction in sediments where iron oxide availability is limited.

Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables were responsive to changes in parameters that influenced planktonic growth rates and less sensitive to physical or chemical parameters. Variation in sensitivity had a direct correspondence with identifiability, such that only small subsets of the complete parameter set had unique effects on the model output.