Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years.

Unlabelled: Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall (WAMR) has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean-atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability.

An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence.

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO, characterized by an effective sensitivity . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence.

Agreement between reconstructed and modeled boreal precipitation of the Last Interglacial.

The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking.

Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socioeconomic changes in China.

Global climate change will increase the frequency of hot temperatures, impairing health and productivity for millions of working people and raising labor costs. In mainland China, high-temperature subsidies (HTSs) are allocated to employees for each working day in extremely hot environments, but the potential heat-related increase in labor cost has not been evaluated so far. Here, we estimate the potential HTS cost in current and future climates under different scenarios of socioeconomic development and radiative forcing (Representative Concentration Pathway), taking uncertainties from the climate model structure and bias correction into account.

Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations.

Simulations of the climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago, and of the Mid-Holocene (MH), 6000 years ago, allow an analysis of climate feedbacks in climate states that are radically different from today. The analyses of cloud and surface albedo feedbacks show that the shortwave cloud feedback is a major driver of differences between model results. Similar behaviours appear when comparing the LGM and MH simulated changes, highlighting the fingerprint of model physics.

Holocene history of ENSO variance and asymmetry in the eastern tropical Pacific.

Understanding the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to global warming requires quantitative data on ENSO under different climate regimes. Here, we present a reconstruction of ENSO in the eastern tropical Pacific spanning the past 10,000 years derived from oxygen isotopes in fossil mollusk shells from Peru. We found that ENSO variance was close to the modern level in the early Holocene and severely damped ~4000 to 5000 years ago.

Irregular tropical glacier retreat over the Holocene epoch driven by progressive warming.

The causes and timing of tropical glacier fluctuations during the Holocene epoch (10,000 years ago to present) are poorly understood. Yet constraining their sensitivity to changes in climate is important, as these glaciers are both sensitive indicators of climate change and serve as water reservoirs for highland regions. Studies have so far documented extra-tropical glacier fluctuations, but in the tropics, glacier-climate relationships are insufficiently understood.

Simulating the amplification of orbital forcing by ocean feedbacks in the last glaciation.

According to Milankovitch theory, the lower summer insolation at high latitudes about 115,000 years ago allowed winter snow to persist throughout summer, leading to ice-sheet build-up and glaciation. But attempts to simulate the last glaciation using global atmospheric models have failed to produce this outcome when forced by insolation changes only. These results point towards the importance of feedback effects-for example, through changes in vegetation or the ocean circulation-for the amplification of solar forcing.