Nowcasting India's Quarterly GDP Growth: A Factor-Augmented Time-Varying Coefficient Regression Model (FA-TVCRM).

Governments, central banks, private firms and others need high frequency information on the state of the economy for their decision making. However, a key indicator like GDP is only available quarterly and that too with a lag. Hence decision makers use high frequency daily, weekly or monthly information to project GDP growth in a given quarter.

Business sentiments during India's national lockdown: Lessons for second and potential third wave.

Unlabelled: The implementation of the COVID-19 national lockdown announced suddenly in March 2020 in India provided a unique opportunity to capture real-time changes in business sentiments during episodes of unexpected and sudden disruptions. Using a logit-probability model to analyse data of this natural experiment showed that firms' 6-months ahead sentiments for its financial condition worsened drastically during lockdown compared to firms surveyed immediately prior to the announcement. Further, smaller firms showed a relatively higher impact.