A niche for null models in adaptive resource management.

As global systems rapidly change, our collective ability to predict future ecological dynamics will become increasingly important for successful natural resource management. By merging stakeholder objectives with system uncertainty, and by adapting actions to changing systems and knowledge, adaptive resource management (ARM) provides a rigorous platform for making sound decisions in a changing world. Critically, however, applications of ARM could be improved by employing benchmarks (i.

Evaluation of a two-season banding program to estimate and model migratory bird survival.

The management of North American waterfowl is predicated on long-term, continental-scale banding implemented prior to the hunting season (i.e., July-September) and subsequent reporting of bands recovered by hunters.

Accumulating evidence in ecology: Once is not enough.

Many published studies in ecological science are viewed as stand-alone investigations that purport to provide new insights into how ecological systems behave based on single analyses. But it is rare for results of single studies to provide definitive results, as evidenced in current discussions of the "reproducibility crisis" in science. The key step in science is the comparison of hypothesis-based predictions with observations, where the predictions are typically generated by hypothesis-specific models.

State-Dependent Resource Harvesting with Lagged Information about System States.

Markov decision processes (MDPs), which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken.

Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds.

The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making-periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.

A prospective randomized trial of an antibiotic- and antiseptic-coated central venous catheter in the prevention of catheter-related infections.

Objective: To test the efficacy of the ARROWgard (Arrow International Inc, Reading, Pa) central venous catheter (CVC) coated with silver sulfadiazine and chlorhexidine (A-CVC) in the prevention of CVC-related infections.

Design: Prospective, randomized trial.

Setting: A tertiary care medical center.

The effect of oral communication on intravenous wastage: talk is cheap.

The authors describe decreases in wastage and return rates in their Pharmacy Service department in a 471-bed tertiary hospital. Through procedural changes in mixing and delivery schedules, stability updating, and daily communication with the Nursing Service, Pharmacy Service dropped from a 3.9% to a 1.