Dynamic projection of ecological risk in the Manas River basin based on terrain gradients.

With large-scale developments, the Manas River Basin (MRB) is in an extreme imbalance especially in land use, thus causing a series of ecological problems. A reliable dynamic ecological risk assessment is expected to provide useful information for the economic development. Through coupling spatial Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model and Landsat satellite images in 2000, 2008 and 2016, we forecasted the land use maps in 2024 and 2032.

Spatiotemporal analysis of ecological vulnerability and management in the Tarim River Basin, China.

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is an extremely arid area in China, suffering from dry climate and intense human activities, which have brought about significant changes in ecological processes and then, led to serious ecological vulnerability (EV). This study proposes an assessment framework to evaluate EV and analyze its dynamic change in the TRB during 2005-2015. An integrated method is developed with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework, which highlights impacts of nature and anthropogenic interference on the ecology.

Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins.

The simulation abilities of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to the arid basin (the Tarim River Basin, TRB) and humid basin (the Yangtze River Basin, YRB) were evaluated, determining the response of precipitation to external changes over typical basins. Our study shows that the future temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation are different in different regions with the CMIP5. The annual and seasonal changes in precipitation were analyzed for the RCP2.