Transition from multi-year La Niña to strong El Niño rare but increased under global warming.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a strong asymmetry between warm El Niño and cold La Niña in amplitude and temporal evolution. An El Niño often leads to a heat discharge in the equatorial Pacific conducive to its rapid termination and transition to a La Niña, whereas a La Niña persists and recharges the equatorial Pacific for consecutive years preconditioning development of a subsequent El Niño, as occurred in 2020-2023. Whether the multiyear-long heat recharge increases the likelihood of a transition to a strong El Niño remains unknown.

Midlatitude mesoscale thermal Air-sea interaction enhanced by greenhouse warming.

The influence of greenhouse warming on mesoscale air-sea interactions, crucial for modulating ocean circulation and climate variability, remains largely unexplored due to the limited resolution of current climate models. Additionally, there is a lack of theoretical frameworks for assessing changes in mesoscale coupling due to warming. Here, we address these gaps by analyzing eddy-resolving high-resolution climate simulations and observations, focusing on the mesoscale thermal interaction dominated by mesoscale sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) coupling in winter.

North Atlantic subtropical mode water formation controlled by Gulf Stream fronts.

The North Atlantic Ocean hosts the largest volume of global subtropical mode waters (STMWs) in the world, which serve as heat, carbon and oxygen silos in the ocean interior. STMWs are formed in the Gulf Stream region where thermal fronts are pervasive and result in feedback with the atmosphere. However, their roles in STMW formation have been overlooked.

Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming.

Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter, whereas La Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer. Relative to single-year La Niña, consecutive La Niña features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific, enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture. Future changes to multi-year-long La Niña events remain unknown.

Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate.

Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models' ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming.

Oceanic mesoscale eddies as crucial drivers of global marine heatwaves.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme warm water events in the ocean, exerting devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. A comprehensive knowledge of physical processes controlling MHW life cycles is pivotal to improve MHW forecast capacity, yet it is still lacking. Here, we use a historical simulation from a global eddy-resolving climate model with improved representation of MHWs, and show that heat flux convergence by oceanic mesoscale eddies acts as a dominant driver of MHW life cycles over most parts of the global ocean.

Growth of ocean thermal energy conversion resources under greenhouse warming regulated by oceanic eddies.

The concept of utilizing a large temperature difference (>20 °C) between the surface and deep seawater to generate electricity, known as the ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), provides a renewable solution to fueling our future. However, it remains poorly assessed how the OTEC resources will respond to future climate change. Here, we find that the global OTEC power potential is projected to increase by 46% around the end of this century under a high carbon emission scenario, compared to its present-day level.

Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and strong cold events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct impacts on global climates. Under transient greenhouse warming, models project increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability of both ENSO regimes, but the timing of emergence out of internal variability remains unknown for either regime. Here we find increased EP-ENSO SST variability emerging by around 2030 ± 6, more than a decade earlier than that of CP-ENSO, and approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested without separating the two regimes.

Greenhouse warming intensifies north tropical Atlantic climate variability.

Variability of North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), characterized by a near-uniform warming at its positive phase, is a consequential mode of climate variability. Modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation, NTA warm anomalies tend to induce La Niña events, droughts in Northeast Brazil, increased frequency of extreme hurricanes, and phytoplankton blooms in the Guinea Dome. Future changes of NTA variability could have profound socioeconomic impacts yet remain unknown.

Maintenance of mid-latitude oceanic fronts by mesoscale eddies.

Oceanic fronts associated with strong western boundary current extensions vent a vast amount of heat into the atmosphere, anchoring mid-latitude storm tracks and facilitating ocean carbon sequestration. However, it remains unclear how the surface heat reservoir is replenished by ocean processes to sustain the atmospheric heat uptake. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we find that the vertical heat transport by ocean mesoscale eddies acts as an important heat supplier to the surface ocean in frontal regions.

Weakening Atlantic Niño-Pacific connection under greenhouse warming.

Sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial eastern Atlantic, which is referred to as an Atlantic Niño (Niña) at its warm (cold) phase and peaks in boreal summer, dominates the interannual variability in the equatorial Atlantic. By strengthening of the Walker circulation, an Atlantic Niño favors a Pacific La Niña, which matures in boreal winter, providing a precursory memory for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. How this Atlantic impact responds to greenhouse warming is unclear.

Pantropical climate interactions.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which originates in the Pacific, is the strongest and most well-known mode of tropical climate variability. Its reach is global, and it can force climate variations of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation. Less appreciated is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific.

Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming.

Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) affects weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health worldwide, particularly when exacerbated by an extreme El Niño. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming below 2 °C and ideally below 1.5 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), but how extreme pIOD will respond to this target is unclear.

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming.