Hybrid modeling approaches for agricultural commodity prices using CEEMDAN and time delay neural networks.

Improving the forecasting accuracy of agricultural commodity prices is critical for many stakeholders namely, farmers, traders, exporters, governments, and all other partners in the price channel, to evade risks and enable appropriate policy interventions. However, the traditional mono-scale smoothing techniques often fail to capture the non-stationary and non-linear features due to their multifarious structure. This study has proposed a CEEMDAN (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise)-TDNN (Time Delay Neural Network) model for forecasting non-linear, non-stationary agricultural price series.

Hybrid time series models with exogenous variable for improved yield forecasting of major Rabi crops in India.

Accurate and in-time prediction of crop yield plays a crucial role in the planning, management, and decision-making processes within the agricultural sector. In this investigation, utilizing area under irrigation (%) as an exogenous variable, we have made an exertion to assess the suitability of different hybrid models such as ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous Regressor)-TDNN (Time-Delay Neural Network), ARIMAX-NLSVR (Non-Linear Support Vector Regression), ARIMAX-WNN (Wavelet Neural Network), ARIMAX-CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), ARIMAX-RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) and ARIMAX-LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) as compared to their individual counterparts for yield forecasting of major Rabi crops in India. The accuracy of the ARIMA model has also been considered as a benchmark.