Allee effects introduced by density dependent phenology.

We consider a hybrid model of an annual species with the timing of a stage transition governed by density dependent phenology. We show that the model can produce a strong Allee effect as well as overcompensation. The density dependent probability distribution that describes how population emergence is spread over time plays an important role in determining population dynamics.

Implicit versus explicit vector management strategies in models for vector-borne disease epidemiology.

Throughout the vector-borne disease modeling literature, there exist two general frameworks for incorporating vector management strategies (e.g. area-wide adulticide spraying and larval source reduction campaigns) into vector population models, namely, the "implicit" and "explicit" control frameworks.

Exploring the functional composition of the human microbiome using a hand-curated microbial trait database.

Background: Even when microbial communities vary wildly in their taxonomic composition, their functional composition is often surprisingly stable. This suggests that a functional perspective could provide much deeper insight into the principles governing microbiome assembly. Much work to date analyzing the functional composition of microbial communities, however, relies heavily on inference from genomic features.

Managing disease outbreaks: The importance of vector mobility and spatially heterogeneous control.

Management strategies for control of vector-borne diseases, for example Zika or dengue, include using larvicide and/or adulticide, either through large-scale application by truck or plane or through door-to-door efforts that require obtaining permission to access private property and spray yards. The efficacy of the latter strategy is highly dependent on the compliance of local residents. Here we develop a model for vector-borne disease transmission between mosquitoes and humans in a neighborhood setting, considering a network of houses connected via nearest-neighbor mosquito movement.

Trait-based analysis of the human skin microbiome.

Background: The past decade of microbiome research has concentrated on cataloging the diversity of taxa in different environments. The next decade is poised to focus on microbial traits and function. Most existing methods for doing this perform pathway analysis using reference databases.

Detecting interaction networks in the human microbiome with conditional Granger causality.

Human microbiome research is rife with studies attempting to deduce microbial correlation networks from sequencing data. Standard correlation and/or network analyses may be misleading when taken as an indication of taxon interactions because "correlation is neither necessary nor sufficient to establish causation"; environmental filtering can lead to correlation between non-interacting taxa. Unfortunately, microbial ecologists have generally used correlation as a proxy for causality although there is a general consensus about what constitutes a causal relationship: causes both precede and predict effects.

Dynamic modelling of personal protection control strategies for vector-borne disease limits the role of diversity amplification.

Personal protection measures, such as bed nets and repellents, are important tools for the suppression of vector-borne diseases like malaria and Zika, and the ability of health agencies to distribute protection and encourage its use plays an important role in the efficacy of community-wide disease management strategies. Recent modelling studies have shown that a counterintuitive diversity-driven amplification in community-wide disease levels can result from a population's partial adoption of personal protection measures, potentially to the detriment of disease management efforts. This finding, however, may overestimate the negative impact of partial personal protection as a result of implicit restrictive model assumptions regarding host compliance, access to and longevity of protection measures.

Mathematical model of Zika virus with vertical transmission.

Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper, we analyze a new system of ordinary differential equations which incorporates human vertical transmission of Zika virus, the birth of babies with microcephaly and asymptomatically infected individuals.

Disentangling social interactions and environmental drivers in multi-individual wildlife tracking data.

While many animal species exhibit strong conspecific interactions, movement analyses of wildlife tracking datasets still largely focus on single individuals. Multi-individual wildlife tracking studies provide new opportunities to explore how individuals move relative to one another, but such datasets are frequently too sparse for the detailed, acceleration-based analytical methods typically employed in collective motion studies. Here, we address the methodological gap between wildlife tracking data and collective motion by developing a general method for quantifying movement correlation from sparsely sampled data.

How Phenological Variation Affects Species Spreading Speeds.

In this paper, we develop a phenologically explicit reaction-diffusion model to analyze the spatial spread of a univoltine insect species. Our model assumes four explicit life stages: adult, two larval, and pupa, with a fourth, implicit, egg stage modeled as a time delay between oviposition and emergence as a larva. As such, our model is broadly applicable to holometabolous insects.

Metabolic division of labor in microbial systems.

Metabolic pathways are often engineered in single microbial populations. However, the introduction of heterologous circuits into the host can create a substantial metabolic burden that limits the overall productivity of the system. This limitation could be overcome by metabolic division of labor (DOL), whereby distinct populations perform different steps in a metabolic pathway, reducing the burden each population will experience.

Statistical analysis of co-occurrence patterns in microbial presence-absence datasets.

Drawing on a long history in macroecology, correlation analysis of microbiome datasets is becoming a common practice for identifying relationships or shared ecological niches among bacterial taxa. However, many of the statistical issues that plague such analyses in macroscale communities remain unresolved for microbial communities. Here, we discuss problems in the analysis of microbial species correlations based on presence-absence data.

Invasion dynamics of competing species with stage-structure.

The spread of an invasive species often results in a decline and subsequent disappearance of native competitors. Several models, primarily based on spatially explicit Lotka-Volterra competition dynamics, have been developed to understand this phenomenon. In general, the goal of these models is to relate fundamental life history traits, for example dispersal ability and competition strength, to the rate of spread of the invasive species, which is also the rate at which the invasive species displaces its native competitor.

A Stoichioproteomic Analysis of Samples from the Human Microbiome Project.

Ecological stoichiometry (ES) uses organism-specific elemental content to explain differences in species life histories, species interactions, community organization, environmental constraints and even ecosystem function. Although ES has been successfully applied to a range of different organisms, most emphasis on microbial ecological stoichiometry focuses on lake, ocean, and soil communities. With the recent advances in human microbiome research, however, large amounts of data are being generated that describe differences in community composition across body sites and individuals.

Perceptual Ranges, Information Gathering, and Foraging Success in Dynamic Landscapes.

How organisms gather and utilize information about their landscapes is central to understanding land-use patterns and population distributions. When such information originates beyond an individual's immediate vicinity, movement decisions require integrating information out to some perceptual range. Such nonlocal information, whether obtained visually, acoustically, or via chemosensation, provides a field of stimuli that guides movement.

Invasion speeds in microbial systems with toxin production and quorum sensing.

The theory of invasions and invasion speeds has traditionally been studied in macroscopic systems. Surprisingly, microbial invasions have received less attention. Although microbes share many of the features associated with competition between larger-bodied organisms, they also exhibit distinctive behaviors that require new mathematical treatments to fully understand invasions in microbial systems.

Epidemiology of La Crosse Virus Emergence, Appalachia Region, United States.

La Crosse encephalitis is a viral disease that has emerged in new locations across the Appalachian region of the United States. Conventional wisdom suggests that ongoing emergence of La Crosse virus (LACV) could stem from the invasive Asian tiger (Aedes albopictus) mosquito. Efforts to prove this, however, are complicated by the numerous transmission routes and species interactions involved in LACV dynamics.

Antibiotics as a selective driver for conjugation dynamics.

It is generally assumed that antibiotics can promote horizontal gene transfer. However, because of a variety of confounding factors that complicate the interpretation of previous studies, the mechanisms by which antibiotics modulate horizontal gene transfer remain poorly understood. In particular, it is unclear whether antibiotics directly regulate the efficiency of horizontal gene transfer, serve as a selection force to modulate population dynamics after such gene transfer has occurred, or both.

Persistence and Spreading Speeds of Integro-Difference Equations with an Expanding or Contracting Habitat.

We study an integro-difference equation model that describes the spatial dynamics of a species in an expanding or contracting habitat. We give conditions under which the species disperses to a region of poor quality where the species eventually becomes extinct. We show that when the species persists in the habitat, the rightward and leftward spreading speeds are determined by c, the speed at which the habitat quality increases or decreases in time, as well as [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text], which are formulated in terms of the dispersal kernel and species growth rates in both directions.

A dynamical model for bark beetle outbreaks.

Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees are highly nonlinear, due to complex aggregation behaviors exhibited by beetles attacking trees.

How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions.

How Oviposition Behavior Determines Persistence in Small Patches and Changing Climates.

Habitat loss and climate change jointly threaten a large fraction of earth's biodiversity. A key goal is to understand how these threats play out differentially across species. Focusing on insects that undergo an ontogenetic shift in habitat requirements, we use critical patch size models to examine how breeding strategy influences the abilities of different kinds of species to persist in small habitat patches.

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community.

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary.

Effects of plant genotype and insect dispersal rate on the population dynamics of a forest pest.

It has been shown that plant genotype can strongly affect not only individual herbivore performance, but also community composition and ecosystem function. Few studies, however, have addressed how plant genotype affects herbivore population dynamics. In this paper, we used a simulation modeling approach to ask how the genetic composition of a forest influences pest outbreak dynamics, using the example of aspen (Populus tremuloides) and forest tent caterpillars (FTC; Malacosoma disstria).

Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth.

The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species.