Uncertainties around net-zero climate targets have major impact on greenhouse gas emissions projections.

Globally, more than 100 countries have adopted net-zero targets. Most studies agree on how this increases the chance of keeping end-of-century global warming below 2°C. However, they typically make assumptions about net-zero targets that do not capture uncertainties related to gas coverage, sector coverage, sinks, and removals.

Costs and benefits of synthetic nitrogen for global cereal production in 2015 and in 2050 under contrasting scenarios.

Cereals are the most important global staple crop and use more than half of global cropland and synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer. While this synthetic N may feed half of the current global population, it has led to a massive increase in reactive N loss to the environment, causing a suite of impacts, offsetting the benefits of N fertilizers for food security and agricultural economy. To address these complex issues, the NBCalCer model was developed to quantify the global effects of N input on crop yields, N budgets and environmental impacts and to assess the associated social benefits and costs.

Surface-Water Nitrate Exposure to World Populations Has Expanded and Intensified during 1970-2010.

Excessive nitrate in surface waters deteriorates the water quality and threatens human health. Human activities have caused increased nitrate concentrations in global surface waters over the past 50 years. An assessment of the long-term trajectory of surface-water nitrate exposure to world populations and the associated potential health risks is imperative but lacking.

Exploring wastewater nitrogen and phosphorus flows in urban and rural areas in China for the period 1970 to 2015.

China has experienced rapid population growth and increasing human N and P discharge from point sources. This paper presents a new spatial and temporal model-based, province-scale inventory of N and P in wastewater using detailed information on the location and functioning of 4436 WWTPs covering China for the period 1970-2015. China's nutrient discharge to surface water increased 22-fold from 177 to 3908 Gg N yr and 29-fold from 20 to 577 Gg P yr in urban areas between 1970 and 2015.

Quantifying future sanitation scenarios and progress towards SDG targets in the shared socioeconomic pathways.

Two main targets of SDG 6 (Sustainable Development Goal), clean water and sanitation, are SDG 6.2, to achieve universal and equitable access to improved sanitation and to phase out unimproved sanitation (include pit latrines without a slab or platform, hanging latrines, bucket latrines and open defecation) and SDG 6.3, to halve the proportion of untreated wastewater by 2030.

Inland Waters Increasingly Produce and Emit Nitrous Oxide.

Nitrous oxide (NO) is a long-lived greenhouse gas and currently contributes ∼10% to global greenhouse warming. Studies have suggested that inland waters are a large and growing global NO source, but whether, how, where, when, and why inland-water NO emissions changed in the Anthropocene remains unclear. Here, we quantify global NO formation, transport, and emission along the aquatic continuum and their changes using a spatially explicit, mechanistic, coupled biogeochemistry-hydrology model.

Nitrogen from agriculture and temperature as the major drivers of deoxygenation in the central Bohai Sea.

Agricultural N losses strongly dominate the N delivery (average 72 % of total N delivery to rivers in the period 1980-2010) in the rivers discharging into the Bohai Sea, a semi-enclosed marginal sea, which has been suffering from eutrophication and deoxygenation since the 1980s. In this paper we investigate the relationship between N loading and deoxygenation in the Bohai Sea, and consequences of future N loading scenarios. Using modeling for the period 1980-2010, the contributions of different oxygen consumption processes were quantified and the main controlling mechanisms of summer bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) evolution in the central Bohai Sea were determined.

Effects of Nitrogen Emissions on Fish Species Richness across the World's Freshwater Ecoregions.

The increasing application of synthetic fertilizer has tripled nitrogen (N) inputs over the 20th century. N enrichment decreases water quality and threatens aquatic species such as fish through eutrophication and toxicity. However, the impacts of N on freshwater ecosystems are typically neglected in life cycle assessment (LCA).

Hindcasting harmful algal bloom risk due to land-based nutrient pollution in the Eastern Chinese coastal seas.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been increasing in frequency, areal extent and duration due to the large increase in nutrient inputs from land-based sources to coastal seas, and cause significant economic losses. In this study, we used the "watershed-coast-continuum" concept to explore the effects of land-based nutrient pollution on HAB development in the Eastern Chinese coastal seas (ECCS). Results from the coupling of a watershed nutrient model and a coast hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model show that between the 1980s and 2000s, the risk of diatom blooms and dinoflagellate blooms increased by 158% and 127%, respectively.

The impact of phosphorus on projected Sub-Saharan Africa food security futures.

Sub-Saharan Africa must urgently improve food security. Phosphorus availability is one of the major barriers to this due to low historical agricultural use. Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicate that only a sustainable (SSP1) or a fossil fuelled future (SSP5) can improve food security (in terms of price, availability, and risk of hunger) whilst nationalistic (SSP3) and unequal (SSP4) pathways worsen food security.

From planetary to regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen pollution.

Excessive agricultural nitrogen use causes environmental problems globally, to an extent that it has been suggested that a safe planetary boundary has been exceeded. Earlier estimates for the planetary nitrogen boundary, however, did not account for the spatial variability in both ecosystems' sensitivity to nitrogen pollution and agricultural nitrogen losses. Here we use a spatially explicit model to establish regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen surplus from thresholds for eutrophication of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and nitrate in groundwater.

Exploring Spatially Explicit Changes in Carbon Budgets of Global River Basins during the 20th Century.

Rivers play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle. However, it remains unknown how long-term river C fluxes change because of climate, land-use, and other environmental changes. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal variations in global freshwater C cycling in the 20th century using the mechanistic IMAGE-Dynamic Global Nutrient Model extended with the Dynamic In-Stream Chemistry Carbon module (DISC-CARBON) that couples river basin hydrology, environmental conditions, and C delivery with C flows from headwaters to mouths.

Quantification of global and national nitrogen budgets for crop production.

Input-output estimates of nitrogen on cropland are essential for improving nitrogen management and better understanding the global nitrogen cycle. Here, we compare 13 nitrogen budget datasets covering 115 countries and regions over 1961-2015. Although most datasets showed similar spatiotemporal patterns, some annual estimates varied widely among them, resulting in large ranges and uncertainty.

More efficient phosphorus use can avoid cropland expansion.

Global projections indicate that approximately 500 Mha of new arable land will be required to meet crop demand by 2050. Applying a dynamic phosphorus (P) pool simulator under different socioeconomic scenarios, we find that cropland expansion can be avoided with less than 7% additional cumulative P fertilizer over 2006-2050 when comparing with cropland expansion scenarios, mostly targeted at nutrient-depleted soils of sub-Saharan Africa. Additional P fertilizer would replenish P withdrawn from crop production, thereby allowing higher productivity levels.

Exploring Long-Term Changes in Silicon Biogeochemistry Along the River Continuum of the Rhine and Yangtze (Changjiang).

This paper presents the spatially explicit (0.5° spatial resolution) Dynamic InStream Chemistry (DISC)-SILICON module, which is part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment-Dynamic Global Nutrient Model global nutrient cycling framework. This new model, for the first time, enables to integrate the combined impact of long-term changes in land use, climate, and hydrology on Si sources (weathering, sewage, and soil loss) and sinks (uptake by diatoms, sedimentation, and burial) along the river continuum.

Aquaculture Production is a Large, Spatially Concentrated Source of Nutrients in Chinese Freshwater and Coastal Seas.

As Chinese aquaculture production accounts for over half of the global aquaculture production and has increased by 50% since 2006, there is growing concern about eutrophication caused by aquaculture in China. This paper presents a model-based estimate of nutrient flows in China's aquaculture system during 2006-2017 using provincial scale data, to spatially distribute nutrient loads with a 0.5° resolution.

Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios.

Datasets of the phosphorus content in laundry and dishwasher detergents.

This data article provides the data of Phosphorus emissions from laundry and dishwasher detergents as part of the Phosphorus emissions from households. The household emissions are presented in the research article "Global nitrogen and phosphorus in urban waste water based on the Shared Socio-economic pathway" (van Puijenbroek et al., 2019) [1].

Global nitrogen and phosphorus in urban waste water based on the Shared Socio-economic pathways.

This paper presents global estimates of nutrient discharge from households to surface water based on the relationships between income and human emissions represented by protein consumption, degree of connection to sewerage systems, presence of wastewater treatment plants and their level of nutrient removal efficiency. These relationships were used to construct scenarios for discharge of nutrients with waste water based on the five Shared Socio-economic Pathways for the period from 1970 to 2050. The number of inhabitants connected to a sewerage system will increase by 2-4 billion people between 2010 and 2050.

Exploring spatiotemporal changes of the Yangtze River (Changjiang) nitrogen and phosphorus sources, retention and export to the East China Sea and Yellow Sea.

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows from land to sea in the Yangtze River basin were simulated for the period 1900-2010, by combining models for hydrology, nutrient input to surface water, and an in-stream retention. This study reveals that the basin-wide nutrient budget, delivery to surface water, and in-stream retention increased during this period. Since 2004, the Three Gorges Reservoir has contributed 5% and 7% of N and P basin-wide retention, respectively.

Erratum: FLO1K, global maps of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow at 1 km resolution from 1960 through 2015.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.

FLO1K, global maps of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow at 1 km resolution from 1960 through 2015.

Streamflow data is highly relevant for a variety of socio-economic as well as ecological analyses or applications, but a high-resolution global streamflow dataset is yet lacking. We created FLO1K, a consistent streamflow dataset at a resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km) and global coverage. FLO1K comprises mean, maximum and minimum annual flow for each year in the period 1960-2015, provided as spatially continuous gridded layers.