The cost of sleeping sickness vector control in Yasa Bonga, a health district in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a neglected tropical disease caused by a parasite transmitted by tsetse flies, once inflicted over 30,000 annual cases and resulted in an estimated half a million deaths in the late twentieth century. An international gHAT control program has reduced cases to under 1,000 annually, encouraging the World Health Organization to target the elimination of gHAT transmission by 2030. This requires adopting innovative disease control approaches in foci where transmission persists.

Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa.

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of "Lassa-X" - a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant - and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets.

Specificity of serological screening tests and reference laboratory tests to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: a prospective clinical performance study.

Background: Serological screening tests play a crucial role to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT). Presently, they preselect individuals for microscopic confirmation, but in future "screen and treat" strategies they will identify individuals for treatment. Variability in reported specificities, the development of new rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and the hypothesis that malaria infection may decrease RDT specificity led us to evaluate the specificity of 5 gHAT screening tests.

Assessing the importance of demographic risk factors across two waves of SARS-CoV-2 using fine-scale case data.

For the long term control of an infectious disease such as COVID-19, it is crucial to identify the most likely individuals to become infected and the role that differences in demographic characteristics play in the observed patterns of infection. As high-volume surveillance winds down, testing data from earlier periods are invaluable for studying risk factors for infection in detail. Observed changes in time during these periods may then inform how stable the pattern will be in the long term.

Towards the sustainable elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Côte d'Ivoire using an integrated approach.

Background: Human African trypanosomiasis is a parasitic disease caused by trypanosomes among which Trypanosoma brucei gambiense is responsible for a chronic form (gHAT) in West and Central Africa. Its elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) was targeted for 2020. Côte d'Ivoire was one of the first countries to be validated by WHO in 2020 and this was particularly challenging as the country still reported around a hundred cases a year in the early 2000s.

Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad.

Human African trypanosomiasis, caused by the gambiense subspecies of Trypanosoma brucei (gHAT), is a deadly parasitic disease transmitted by tsetse. Partners worldwide have stepped up efforts to eliminate the disease, and the Chadian government has focused on the previously high-prevalence setting of Mandoul. In this study, we evaluate the economic efficiency of the intensified strategy that was put in place in 2014 aimed at interrupting the transmission of gHAT, and we make recommendations on the best way forward based on both epidemiological projections and cost-effectiveness.

A high level estimation of the net economic benefits to small-scale livestock producers arising from animal health product distribution initiatives.

Introduction: A fundamental challenge for charities that facilitate distribution of animal health products to small-scale livestock producers (SSPs) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) is identifying the products and market mechanisms that provide the greatest positive impact for SSPs and estimating their associated impact. This paper describes a pragmatic approach to modeling the impact of market-led product distribution initiatives based on estimating the net economic benefit of administration of animal health products.

Methods: The model estimates the economic impact of diseases at the individual animal level for poultry, small ruminants, and cattle.

A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a deadly vector-borne, neglected tropical disease found in West and Central Africa targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. The recent pandemic has illustrated how it can be important to quantify the impact that unplanned disruption to programme activities may have in achieving EoT. We used a previously developed model of gHAT fitted to data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country with the highest global case burden, to explore how interruptions to intervention activities, due to e.

FAIR data pipeline: provenance-driven data management for traceable scientific workflows.

Modern epidemiological analyses to understand and combat the spread of disease depend critically on access to, and use of, data. Rapidly evolving data, such as data streams changing during a disease outbreak, are particularly challenging. Data management is further complicated by data being imprecisely identified when used.

SCoVMod - a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

: Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spread. These restrictions have adverse impacts on the economy and other aspects of human health, and it is important to quantify their impact for evaluating their future value. : Here we develop Scotland Coronavirus transmission Model (SCoVMod), a model for COVID-19 in Scotland, which presents unusual challenges because of its diverse geography and population conditions.

Seroepidemiology of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever among cattle in Cameroon: Implications from a One Health perspective.

Background: Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne viral zoonotic disease distributed across several continents and recognized as an ongoing health threat. In humans, the infection can progress to a severe disease with high fatality, raising public health concerns due to the limited prophylactic and therapeutic options available. Animal species, clinically unaffected by the virus, serve as viral reservoirs and amplifier hosts, and can be a valuable tool for surveillance.

Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad.

Background: In recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies.

Estimating the impact of Tiny Targets in reducing the incidence of Gambian sleeping sickness in the North-west Uganda focus.

Background: Riverine species of tsetse (Glossina) transmit Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, which causes Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a neglected tropical disease. Uganda aims to eliminate gHAT as a public health problem through detection and treatment of human cases and vector control. The latter is being achieved through the deployment of 'Tiny Targets', insecticide-impregnated panels of material which attract and kill tsetse.

Segmentation and shielding of the most vulnerable members of the population as elements of an exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown.

This study demonstrates that an adoption of a segmenting and shielding strategy could increase the scope to partially exit COVID-19 lockdown while limiting the risk of an overwhelming second wave of infection. We illustrate this using a mathematical model that segments the vulnerable population and their closest contacts, the 'shielders'. Effects of extending the duration of lockdown and faster or slower transition to post-lockdown conditions and, most importantly, the trade-off between increased protection of the vulnerable segment and fewer restrictions on the general population are explored.

Optimising passive surveillance of a neglected tropical disease in the era of elimination: A modelling study.

Background: Surveillance is an essential component of global programs to eliminate infectious diseases and avert epidemics of (re-)emerging diseases. As the numbers of cases decline, costs of treatment and control diminish but those for surveillance remain high even after the 'last' case. Reducing surveillance may risk missing persistent or (re-)emerging foci of disease.

Hip displacement in children with cerebral palsy.

Aims: The migration percentage (MP) is one criterion used for surgery in dislocated or displaced hips in children with cerebral palsy (CP). The MP at which a displaced hip can no longer return to normal is unclear. The aim of this paper was to identify the point of no return of the MP through a large population-based study.

Development and implementation of a strategy for intensified screening for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Kongo Central province, DRC.

Background: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accounts for the majority of the reported gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) cases. Kongo Central province in the DRC reports a relatively low, yet steady number of cases, and forms a transboundary focus with Angola and the Republic of Congo. This paper describes an intervention aimed at reducing the case burden in Kongo Central by improving passive case detection, complemented with reactive screening.

Improved Access to Diagnostics for Rhodesian Sleeping Sickness around a Conservation Area in Malawi Results in Earlier Detection of Cases and Reduced Mortality.

Human African Trypanosomiasis (rHAT) is a zoonotic disease transmitted by tsetse flies from wild and domestic animals. It presents as an acute disease and advances rapidly into a neurological form that can only be treated with melarsoprol, which is associated with a high fatality rate. Bringing diagnostic services for rHAT closer to at-risk populations would increase chances of detecting cases in early stages of disease when treatment is safer and more effective.

A Tool for Prioritizing Livestock Disease Threats to Scotland.

There are a number of disease threats to the livestock of Scotland that are not presently believed to be circulating in the UK. Here, we present the development of a tool for prioritizing resources for livestock disease threats to Scotland by combining a semi-quantitative model of the chance of introduction of different diseases with a semi-quantitative model of disease impact. Eighteen key diseases were identified and then input into a model framework to produce a semi-quantitative estimate of disease priorities.

An analysis of the impact of Newcastle disease vaccination and husbandry practice on smallholder chicken productivity in Uganda.

A number of studies have demonstrated the clear beneficial impact that vaccinating against Newcastle disease (ND) can have on reducing the frequency and severity of ND outbreaks. Here we go one step further and analyse the additional benefits in terms of improved production that result from vaccination. Data were collected from a cross sectional survey in Uganda of 593 chicken-rearing smallholders (for the purpose of this study this was defined as a farm with fewer than 75 chickens).

Whole Genome Sequence Analysis Reveals Lower Diversity and Frequency of Acquired Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Genes in From Dairy Herds Compared With Human Isolates From the Same Region of Central Zambia.

Antibiotic treatment of sick dairy cattle is critical for the sustainability of this production system which is vital for food security and societal prosperity in many low and middle-income countries. Given the increasingly high levels of antibiotic resistance worldwide and the challenge this presents for the treatment of bacterial infections, the rational use of antibiotics in humans and animals has been emphatically recommended in the spirit of a "One Health" approach. The aim of this study was to characterize antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes and their frequencies from whole genome sequences of isolated from both dairy cattle and human patients in central Zambia.

Estimating the impact of administration of dewormers on smallholder chickens in Odisha State, India.

Helminth infections, in particular infections with nematodes are highly prevalent and an impediment to the productivity of chickens in smallholder settings. Infections can be easily and cheaply treated using dewormers. We present an empirical framework for estimating the impact of administration of locally available dewormers on chicken weight in a smallholder setting in Odisha State of India.