Practice-relevant model validation: distributional parameter risk analysis in financial model risk management.

An objective of model validation within organisations is to provide guidance on model selection decisions that balance the operational effectiveness and structural complexity of competing models. We consider a practice-relevant model validation scenario where a financial quantitative analysis team seeks to decide between incumbent and alternative models on the basis of parameter risk. We devise a model risk management methodology that gives a meaningful distributional assessment of parameter risk in a setting where market calibration and historical estimation procedures must be jointly applied.

Using registries to identify adverse events in rheumatic diseases.

The proven effectiveness of biologics and other immunomodulatory products in inflammatory rheumatic diseases has resulted in their widespread use as well as reports of potential short- and long-term complications such as infection and malignancy. These complications are especially worrisome in children who often have serial exposures to multiple immunomodulatory products. Post-marketing surveillance of immunomodulatory products in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and pediatric systemic lupus erythematosus is currently based on product-specific registries and passive surveillance, which may not accurately reflect the safety risks for children owing to low numbers, poor long-term retention, and inadequate comparators.

Preventing alcohol-related convictions: the effect of a novel curriculum for first-time offenders on DUI recidivism.

Objective: To determine whether DUI offenders can better avoid future drinking and driving by controlling their vehicle usage rather than by controlling their drinking.

Methods: Using a randomized experimental post-test only design, 9,571 first-time DUI offenders were randomly assigned to receive one of two 12-hour educational programs: a traditional DUI curriculum or the PARC (Preventing Alcohol-Related Convictions) curriculum, which uses a novel theoretical approach to preventing DUI recidivism. Whereas traditional programs focus on participants controlling their drinking to avoid future drinking and driving, the PARC curriculum focuses on participants controlling their driving.

The impact of a novel educational curriculum for first-time DUI offenders on intermediate outcomes relevant to DUI recidivism.

The Preventing Alcohol-Related Convictions (PARC) program is a novel educational curriculum for first-time DUI offenders, with the ultimate goal of reducing DUI recidivism. It differs from traditional DUI education and prevention programs in that it does not suggest to DUI offenders that they must abstain from alcohol entirely or control their drinking to prevent a future DUI; rather, it teaches students to prevent a future DUI by not driving their cars to drinking events. Thus, the emphasis of the curriculum is on controlling driving rather than controlling drinking to avoid future DUI convictions.