An integrated spatio-temporal view of riverine biodiversity using environmental DNA metabarcoding.

Anthropogenically forced changes in global freshwater biodiversity demand more efficient monitoring approaches. Consequently, environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is enabling ecosystem-scale biodiversity assessment, yet the appropriate spatio-temporal resolution of robust biodiversity assessment remains ambiguous. Here, using intensive, spatio-temporal eDNA sampling across space (five rivers in Europe and North America, with an upper range of 20-35 km between samples), time (19 timepoints between 2017 and 2018) and environmental conditions (river flow, pH, conductivity, temperature and rainfall), we characterise the resolution at which information on diversity across the animal kingdom can be gathered from rivers using eDNA.

Protection of forest ecosystems in the eastern United States from elevated atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen: A comparison of steady-state and dynamic model results.

Critical loads (CLs) and target loads (TLs) of atmospheric deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) specify the thresholds of air pollution above which damage to ecosystems is expected to occur and are used to inform environmental regulation and natural resource management. Model estimates of CL and TL can vary for a given location, and these differences can be important for characterization of ecosystem effects from elevated S and N deposition. Moreover, TLs are used to evaluate associated timeframes of ecosystem recovery.

Environmental DNA provides higher resolution assessment of riverine biodiversity and ecosystem function via spatio-temporal nestedness and turnover partitioning.

Rapidly assessing biodiversity is essential for environmental monitoring; however, traditional approaches are limited in the scope needed for most ecological systems. Environmental DNA (eDNA) based assessment offers enhanced scope for assessing biodiversity, while also increasing sampling efficiency and reducing processing time, compared to traditional methods. Here we investigated the effects of landuse and seasonality on headwater community richness and functional diversity, via spatio-temporal dynamics, using both eDNA and traditional sampling.

Executing multi-taxa eDNA ecological assessment via traditional metrics and interactive networks.

Current approaches to ecological assessment are limited by the traditional morpho-taxonomic methods presently employed and the inability to meet increasing demands for rapid assessments. Advancements in high throughput sequencing now enable rapid high-resolution ecological assessment using environmental DNA (eDNA). Here we test the ability of using eDNA-based ecological assessment methods against traditional assessment of two key indicator groups (diatoms and macroinvertebrates) and show how eDNA across multiple gene regions (COI, rbcL, 12S and 18S) can be used to infer interactive networks that link to ecological assessment criteria.

Fragmentation and thresholds in hydrological flow-based ecosystem services.

Loss and fragmentation of natural land cover due to expansion of agricultural areas is a global issue. These changes alter the configuration and composition of the landscape, particularly affecting those ecosystem services (benefits people receive from ecosystems) that depend on interactions between landscape components. Hydrological mitigation describes the bundle of ecosystem services provided by landscape features such as woodland that interrupt the flow of runoff to rivers.

Zones of influence for soil organic matter dynamics: A conceptual framework for data and models.

Soil organic matter (SOM) is an indicator of sustainable land management as stated in the global indicator framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG Indicator 15.3.1).

Acidity promotes degradation of multi-species environmental DNA in lotic mesocosms.

Accurate quantification of biodiversity is fundamental to understanding ecosystem function and for environmental assessment. Molecular methods using environmental DNA (eDNA) offer a non-invasive, rapid, and cost-effective alternative to traditional biodiversity assessments, which require high levels of expertise. While eDNA analyses are increasingly being utilized, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the dynamics of multispecies eDNA, especially in variable systems such as rivers.

Consequences of intensive forest harvesting on the recovery of Swedish lakes from acidification and on critical load exceedances.

Across much of the northern hemisphere, lakes are at risk of re-acidification due to incomplete recovery from historical acidification and pressures associated with more intensive forest biomass harvesting. Critical load (CL) calculations aimed at estimating the amount of pollutants an ecosystem can receive without suffering adverse consequences are dependent on these factors. Here, we present a modelling study of the potential effects of intensified forest harvesting on re-acidification of a set of 3239 Swedish lakes based on scenarios with varying intensities of forest biomass harvest and acid deposition.

Comparing strengths and weaknesses of three ecosystem services modelling tools in a diverse UK river catchment.

Ecosystem services modelling tools can help land managers and policy makers evaluate the impacts of alternative management options or changes in land use on the delivery of ecosystem services. As the variety and complexity of these tools increases, there is a need for comparative studies across a range of settings, allowing users to make an informed choice. Using examples of provisioning and regulating services (water supply, carbon storage and nutrient retention), we compare three spatially explicit tools - LUCI (Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator), ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs).

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale.

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production.

Policy Analysis: Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

This study estimates the economic value of an increase in ecosystem services attributable to the reduced acidification expected from more stringent air pollution policy. By integrating a detailed biogeochemical model that projects future ecological recovery with economic methods that measure preferences for specific ecological improvements, we estimate the economic value of ecological benefits from new air pollution policies in the Southern Appalachian ecosystem. Our results indicate that these policies generate aggregate benefits of about $3.

Simple models to estimate historical and recent changes of total organic carbon concentrations in lakes.

Quantifying human impacts on the natural environment requires credible reconstructions of reference conditions. Anthropogenic acidification of surface waters is strongly influenced by total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations. Because both the degree of acidification and recovery are dependent on historical TOC concentrations, simple models to estimate changes in surface water TOC between reference conditions (1860) and the present day (2012) are needed.

Steady-state sulfur critical loads and exceedances for protection of aquatic ecosystems in the U.S. Southern Appalachian Mountains.

Atmospherically deposited sulfur (S) causes stream water acidification throughout the eastern U.S. Southern Appalachian Mountain (SAM) region.

Decreased atmospheric sulfur deposition across the Southeastern U.S.: when will watersheds release stored sulfate?

Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to the atmosphere lead to atmospheric deposition of sulfate (SO4(2-)), which is the dominant strong acid anion causing acidification of surface waters and soils in the eastern United States. Since passage of the Clean Air Act and its Amendments, atmospheric deposition of SO2 in this region has declined by over 80%, but few corresponding decreases in streamwater SO4(2-) concentrations have been observed in unglaciated watersheds. We calculated SO4(2-) mass balances for 27 forested, unglaciated watersheds from Pennsylvania to Georgia, by using total atmospheric deposition (wet plus dry) as input.

Modeling past and future acidification of Swedish lakes.

Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of "not naturally acidified" (∆pH > 0.

Target loads of atmospheric sulfur deposition for the protection and recovery of acid-sensitive streams in the Southern Blue Ridge Province.

An important tool in the evaluation of acidification damage to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems is the critical load (CL), which represents the steady-state level of acidic deposition below which ecological damage would not be expected to occur, according to current scientific understanding. A deposition load intended to be protective of a specified resource condition at a particular point in time is generally called a target load (TL). The CL or TL for protection of aquatic biota is generally based on maintaining surface water acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) at an acceptable level.

Predicting acidification recovery at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire: evaluation of four models.

The performance and prediction uncertainty (owing to parameter and structural uncertainties) of four dynamic watershed acidification models (MAGIC, PnET-BGC, SAFE, and VSD) were assessed by systematically applying them to data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, where long-term records of precipitation and stream chemistry were available. In order to facilitate systematic evaluation, Monte Carlo simulation was used to randomly generate common model input data sets (n = 10,000) from parameter distributions; input data were subsequently translated among models to retain consistency. The model simulations were objectively calibrated against observed data (streamwater: 1963-2004, soil: 1983).

Modeling future acidification and fish populations in Norwegian surface waters.

Despite great progress made in the past 25 years, acid deposition continues to cause widespread damage to the environment in Europe and eastern North America. Legislation to limit emissions of sulfur and nitrogen compounds in Europe is now under revision. The most recent protocol was based in part on the critical loads concept.

Forecasting acidification effects using a Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation approach.

We present a statistical framework for model calibration and uncertainty estimation for complex deterministic models. A Bayesian approach is used to combine data from observations, the deterministic model, and prior parameter distributions to obtain forecast distributions. A case study is presented in which the statistical framework is applied using the hydrogeochemical model (MAGIC) for an assessment of recovery from acidification of soils and surface waters at a long-term study site in Norway under different future acid deposition conditions.

Are brook trout streams in western Virginia and Shenandoah National Park recovering from acidification?

Streamwater composition data obtained through periodic sampling of streams that support brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in the mountains of western Virginia were examined for evidence of recovery from acidification during the 1988-2001 period. Measurements of sulfate deposition in precipitation indicate that sulfate deposition in the region declined approximately 40% between 1985 and 2000. While no significant regional trends in acid-base constituents were observed for the set (n = 65) of western Virginia study streams, significant regional trends were observed for a subset (n = 14) of streams in Shenandoah National Park (SNP).

Aggregating Fine-Scale Ecological Knowledge to Model Coarser-Scale Attributes of Ecosystems.

As regional and global scales become more important to ecologists, methods must be developed for the application of existing fine-scale knowledge to predict coarser-scale ecosystem properties. This generally involves some form of model in which fine-scale components are aggregated. This aggregation is necessary to avoid the cumulative error associated with the estimation of a large number of parameters.