COVID-19 epidemic in The World Health Organization African Region (WHOAR): Situation and forecast.

To describe the dynamics and forecast the main parameters of the COVID-19 pandemic, the time series of daily cases in the World Health Organization African Region (WHOAR) from February 26th to December 29th, 2020 was analyzed. Estimates for expected values of parameters characterizing an epidemic (size of the epidemic, turning point, maximum value of daily cases, and basic reproductive number) were provided for both the first and the second wave, and for the entire ongoing pandemic in WHOAR. To this aim, the classical SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model and its approximations were applied to each identified wave.