The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters.

Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail.

Damming the rivers of the Amazon basin.

More than a hundred hydropower dams have already been built in the Amazon basin and numerous proposals for further dam constructions are under consideration. The accumulated negative environmental effects of existing dams and proposed dams, if constructed, will trigger massive hydrophysical and biotic disturbances that will affect the Amazon basin's floodplains, estuary and sediment plume. We introduce a Dam Environmental Vulnerability Index to quantify the current and potential impacts of dams in the basin.