Predicting herd immunity achievement: a time-series analysis of vaccination and fatality rates using 1,075 days of COVID-19 data.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic, driven by SARS-CoV-2, has made vaccination a critical strategy for global control. However, vaccine hesitancy, particularly among certain age groups, remains a significant barrier to achieving herd immunity.

Methods: This study uses Poisson regression and ARIMA time-series modeling to identify factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy, understand age-specific vaccination preferences, and assess the impact of bivalent vaccines on reducing hesitancy and fatality rates.

Implementation of the compulsory universal testing scheme in Hong Kong: Mathematical simulations of a household-based pooling approach.

This study aims to propose a pooling approach to simulate the compulsory universal RT-PCR test in Hong Kong and explore the feasibility of implementing the pooling method on a household basis. The mathematical model is initially verified, and then the simulation is performed under different prevalence rates and pooled sizes. The simulated population is based in Hong Kong.