What's in a sample? Epistemic uncertainty and metacognitive awareness in risk taking.

In a fundamentally uncertain world, sound information processing is a prerequisite for effective behavior. Given that information processing is subject to inevitable cognitive imprecision, decision makers should adapt to this imprecision and to the resulting epistemic uncertainty when taking risks. We tested this metacognitive ability in two experiments in which participants estimated the expected value of different number distributions from sequential samples and then bet on their own estimation accuracy.

Structural parameter interdependencies in computational models of cognition.

Computational modeling of cognition allows latent psychological variables to be measured by means of adjustable model parameters. The estimation and interpretation of the parameters are impaired, however, if parameters are strongly intercorrelated within the model. We point out that strong parameter interdependencies are especially likely to emerge in models that combine a subjective value function with a probabilistic choice rule-a common structure in the literature.

How does the peak-end rule smell? Tracing hedonic experience with odours.

The peak-end rule predicts that retrospective evaluations of affective events heavily depend on their most intense and last moment and imply duration neglect. It was originally proposed for negative experiences such as painful medical procedures. It is unclear, however, to what degree it also applies to positive experiences.

Accuracy of food preference predictions in couples.

The goal of this study was to identify and empirically test variables that indicate how well partners in relationships know each other's food preferences. Participants (n = 2,854) lived in the same household and were part of a large, nationally representative panel study in Germany. Each partner independently predicted the other's preferences for several common food items.

Empirical comparison of the adjustable spanner and the adaptive toolbox models of choice.

Past research indicates that individuals respond adaptively to contextual factors in multiattribute choice tasks. Yet it remains unclear how this adaptation is cognitively governed. In this article, empirically testable implementations of two prominent competing theoretical frameworks are developed and compared across two multiattribute choice experiments: the adaptive toolbox framework assuming discrete choice strategies and the adjustable spanner framework assuming one comprehensive adaptive strategy.

Taxing cognitive capacities reduces choice consistency rather than preference: A model-based test.

How do people make preferential choices in situations where their cognitive capacities are limited? Many studies link the manipulation of cognitive resources to qualitative changes in preferences. However, there is a widely overlooked alternative hypothesis, namely, that a reduction in cognitive capacities leads to an increase in choice inconsistency. We developed a mathematical model and followed a hierarchical Bayesian estimation approach to test to what extent a reduction in cognitive capacities leads to a shift in preference or an increase in choice inconsistency.

Unpacking buyer-seller differences in valuation from experience: A cognitive modeling approach.

People often indicate a higher price for an object when they own it (i.e., as sellers) than when they do not (i.

Psychophysiological arousal and inter- and intraindividual differences in risk-sensitive decision making.

The current study assessed peripheral responses during decision making under explicit risk, and tested whether intraindividual variability in choice behavior can be explained by fluctuations in peripheral arousal. Electrodermal activity (EDA) and heart rate (HR) were monitored in healthy volunteers (N = 68) during the Roulette Betting Task. In this task, participants were presented with risky gambles to bet on, with the chances of winning varying across trials.

Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers.

Why do people gamble? A large body of research suggests that cognitive distortions play an important role in pathological gambling. Many of these distortions are specific cases of a more general misperception of randomness, specifically of an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences. In this article, we provide further evidence for the assumption that gamblers are particularly prone to perceiving illusory patterns.

A generalized distance function for preferential choices.

Many cognitive theories of judgement and decision making assume that choice options are evaluated relative to other available options. The extent to which the preference for one option is influenced by other available options will often depend on how similar the options are to each other, where similarity is assumed to be a decreasing function of the distance between options. We examine how the distance between preferential options that are described on multiple attributes can be determined.

Using Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation to assess the generalizability of cognitive models of choice.

To be useful, cognitive models with fitted parameters should show generalizability across time and allow accurate predictions of future observations. It has been proposed that hierarchical procedures yield better estimates of model parameters than do nonhierarchical, independent approaches, because the formers' estimates for individuals within a group can mutually inform each other. Here, we examine Bayesian hierarchical approaches to evaluating model generalizability in the context of two prominent models of risky choice-cumulative prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) and the transfer-of-attention-exchange model (Birnbaum & Chavez, 1997).

Selecting decision strategies: the differential role of affect.

Many theories on cognition assume that people adapt their decision strategies depending on the situation they face. To test if and how affect guides the selection of decision strategies, we conducted an online study (N = 166), where different mood states were induced through video clips. Results indicate that mood influenced the use of decision strategies.

Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes.

A hierarchical Bayesian model of the influence of run length on sequential predictions.

Two models of how people predict the next outcome in a sequence of binary events were developed and compared on the basis of gambling data from a lab experiment using hierarchical Bayesian techniques. The results from a student sample (N = 39) indicated that a model that considers run length ("drift model")-that is, how often the same event has previously occurred in a row-provided a better description of the data than did a stationary model taking only the immediately prior event into account. Both, expectation of negative and of positive recency was observed, and these tendencies mostly grew stronger with run length.

Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework.

Constructing preference from experience: the endowment effect reflected in external information search.

People often attach a higher value to an object when they own it (i.e., as seller) compared with when they do not own it (i.

Dining in the dark. The importance of visual cues for food consumption and satiety.

How important are visual cues for determining satiation? To find out, 64 participants were served lunch in a "dark" restaurant where they ate in complete darkness. Half the participants unknowingly received considerably larger "super-size" portions which subsequently led them to eat 36% more food. Despite this difference, participants' appetite for dessert and their subjective satiety were largely unaffected by how much they had consumed.

Less may be more when choosing is difficult: choice complexity and too much choice.

Although consumers readily seek choice and abundance, the so-called too-much-choice effect suggests that having many alternatives to choose from eventually leads to negative consequences, such as decreased post-choice satisfaction. The present research extends this research by highlighting the role of choice complexity. It is argued that too-much-choice effects are associated with choice complexity, which is influenced not only by the number of alternatives, but also by other features of the choice set, such as the number of attributes that alternatives are differentiated upon.

Cognitive models of choice: comparing decision field theory to the proportional difference model.

People often face preferential decisions under risk. To further our understanding of the cognitive processes underlying these preferential choices, two prominent cognitive models, decision field theory (DFT; Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993) and the proportional difference model (PD; González-Vallejo, 2002), were rigorously tested against each other. In two consecutive experiments, the participants repeatedly had to choose between monetary gambles.

Predicting children's meal preferences: how much do parents know?

We investigate how accurate parents are at predicting their children's meal preferences and what cues best describe parents' predictions. In Study 1, 30 parents predicted their children's school lunch choices from actual school menus. Parents' prediction accuracy matched the stability of children's meal choices (assessed in a 4-month retest), implying that accuracy was as high as can be expected.

Fast and frugal food choices: uncovering individual decision heuristics.

Research on food decision making is often based on the assumption that people take many different aspects into account and weight and add them according to their personally assessed importance. Yet there is a growing body of research suggesting that people's decisions can often be better described by simple heuristics-rules of thumb that people use to make choices based on only a few important pieces of information. To test empirically whether a simple heuristic is able to account for individual food decisions, we ran a computerized experiment in which participants (N = 50) repeatedly chose between pairs of 20 lunch dishes that were sampled from a local food court.