Comparing Drivers of Spatial Variability in U.S. Lake and Stream Phosphorus Concentrations.

Decision makers need to know the drivers of surface water phosphorus (P) concentrations, the environmental factors that mediate P loading in freshwater systems, and where pollution sources and mediating factors are co-located to inform water quality restoration efforts. To provide this information, publicly available spatial data sets of P pollution sources and relevant environmental variables, like temperature, precipitation, and agricultural soil erodibility, were matched with >7,000 stream and lake total P observations throughout the conterminous United States. Using three statistical approaches, consisting of (a) correlation, (b) regression, and (c) machine learning techniques, we identified likely drivers of P concentrations.