Complexity for complexity-How advanced modeling may limit its applicability for decision-makers.

As today's engineering systems have become increasingly sophisticated, assessing the efficacy of their safety-critical systems has become much more challenging. The more classical methods of "failure" analysis by decomposition into components related by logic trees, such as fault and event trees, root cause analysis, and failure mode and effects analysis lead to models that do not necessarily behave like the real systems they are meant to represent. These models need to display similar emergent and unpredictable behaviors to sociotechnical systems in the real world.

The ethical dilemmas of risky decisions.

Even in a pandemic there seem to be inherent conflicts of interest between the individual and societal consequences of remedial actions and strategies. Actions taken in the sole interests of patients, as required by the Hippocratic oath, can have broadly inconvenient economic implications for the State. ("Average" benefits for a population can impose individual inconveniences for the vulnerable.

Dragons, black swans and decisions.

Since Nassim Taleb coined black swan as an event that occurred as a complete surprise for everybody, the metaphor of the black swan has been applied to a much wider variety of events. Black swan events now comprise events that are a surprise for some but not for others, events that have a low likelihood, events that were not believed to be possible but still proved to be possible, events that were dismissed as being too improbable to worry about but happened anyway. For a decision maker the black swan problem is choosing where to put effort to prevent, or mitigate events for which there are warnings, or for which the possibility has been put forward.

Language issues, an underestimated danger in major hazard control?

Language issues are problems with communication via speech, signs, gestures or their written equivalents. They may result from poor reading and writing skills, a mix of foreign languages and other circumstances. Language issues are not picked up as a safety risk on the shop floor by current safety management systems.