Transect-based trapping for area-wide delimitation of insects.

Typical delimitation trapping survey designs for area-wide (nonlocalized) insect populations are regularly spaced grids, and alternative shapes have not been evaluated. We hypothesized that transect-based designs could give similar detection rates with significantly shorter servicing distances. We used the TrapGrid model to investigate novel "trap-sect" designs incorporating crossed, spoked, and parallel lines of traps, comparing them to a regular grid, in single survey and multiple-site scenarios.

Simulation-based evaluation of two insect trapping grids for delimitation surveys.

In the United States of America, delimitation trapping surveys with square grids have been used for decades for exotic insects without rigorous evaluation. We used simulations to investigate the effectiveness of two representative designs: an 8-km grid for Acrolepiopsis assectella (leek moth) and a 14.5-km grid for Ceratitis capitata (Mediterranean fruit fly, "Medfly").

Simulation-Based Investigation of the Performance of Delimiting Trapping Surveys for Insect Pests.

Fully trapped survey designs are widely used to delimit adventive pests populations that can be detected using traps and lures. Delimitation includes verifying the presence of the pest and determining its spatial extent. The size and shape of the survey design and the density of traps can vary; however, resulting variation in detecting efficiency is often unknown.

Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis for a Weed Risk Assessment System.

Weed risk assessments (WRA) are used to identify plant invaders before introduction. Unfortunately, very few incorporate uncertainty ratings or evaluate the effects of uncertainty, a fundamental risk component. We developed a probabilistic model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of uncertainty on the outcomes of a question-based WRA tool for the United States.